[Choi Junyoung's World+]Do Not Fear the Future Shaped by a Changing America

Moving Beyond Multilateralism and the Role of "Global Policeman"
Trump's "America First" Approach Signals a New Era
Korea Faces a Unique Opportunity for Transformation

On the 20th of last month (local time), as President Trump took office, the world watched the new changes with tension and fear. This reaction is quite different from the curiosity with which people viewed President Trump's inauguration in 2017 as something interesting happening. Everyone knows that the America led by Trump will be significantly different from the past.

America has undergone major changes in cycles of 40 years. President Roosevelt, inaugurated amid the fear of the Great Depression in the 1930s, transformed America through the New Deal. To us, the New Deal is mainly recognized as large-scale civil engineering projects through expanded government spending and job creation through public works. However, the true meaning of the New Deal lies in rewriting the political grammar of America.

President Roosevelt actively accepted the demands of the American working class, such as labor unions and farmers, who had been excluded or marginalized by the political establishment, thereby gaining their support for himself and the Democratic Party. To accommodate the demands of his support base, large-scale funding and administrative organizations were necessary. Tax rates increased and administrative agencies expanded. The era of big government began. The core of the New Deal was an era in which the state took care of its people through various means. As government-led planning and project implementation became common, large-scale projects that could not be undertaken by the private sector became possible, leading to victory in World War II, wartime economic revival, and postwar reconstruction projects, resulting in American prosperity. The New Deal system created by Roosevelt fundamentally changed American society and lasted until the early 1970s.

By the 1970s, the situation changed. The Watergate scandal, oil shocks, defeat in the Vietnam War, and prolonged stagflation led America through a turbulent period in the 1970s. Amid rising concerns about America's decline, President Reagan emerged, advocating the abandonment of the government-led New Deal system and a shift to a market-centered system where the market and private sector decide everything. Despite difficulties such as the collapse of manufacturing and massive unemployment, America endured rapid changes during Reagan's era and ultimately transformed into a new America, maintaining its status as the world's strongest power. The America we know well is the America of the 40 years since the 1980s.

President Trump, starting his second term, aims to change America once again. Trump believes America is facing a crisis caused by illegal immigrants flooding in from outside and the deep state controlling the federal government. He believes that only by solving these problems can America be reborn. Trump has prioritized the forced deportation of illegal immigrants and is pushing for sweeping changes in the federal government through Elon Musk. These internal changes in America inevitably lead to changes in foreign policy.

To Trump, who advocates putting America first, the foreign policies America has pursued so far are seen as causing unnecessary sacrifices and waste of costs. However, Trump does not believe that America should unconditionally withdraw or reduce its presence in all regions, as that would harm American interests. Therefore, Trump plans to designate regions vital to America's survival as his sphere of influence and strongly check and punish forces that challenge it.

For Trump, America's sphere of influence traditionally includes the Western Hemisphere, referring to the area west of the 20th meridian west, encompassing the Arctic regions such as Iceland and Greenland, as well as the Caribbean and Central and South America. China, which is expanding its influence in this area, is considered a hostile force directly infringing on American interests. Trump's pre-inauguration pressures on neighboring countries like Mexico and Canada, his mention of purchasing Greenland, and reclaiming the Panama Canal are based on this perception.

In Asia, Trump is likely to consider South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines within his sphere of influence. Japan, as a victor of World War II, is naturally within America's influence, and the Philippines also has a history of colonization. South Korea is important as a foothold on the Asian continent. The U.S. Forces Korea is the only U.S. military base on the Asian continent, serving as a key point for deploying American military power to contain China.

Trump will certainly demand corresponding measures in exchange for providing security to these countries. While generally mentioning increased defense cost-sharing, Trump's considerations will be broader, including reducing the U.S. trade deficit and expanding investment in America to create jobs. From this perspective, Trump will increase pressure, such as imposing high tariffs, on countries with trade surpluses with the U.S., including Vietnam, unlike previous administrations. Trump believes that the increase in these countries' trade surpluses is due to Chinese companies' indirect exports.

To properly understand and anticipate the changes led by Trump, it is urgent to break away from past fixed notions. Trump perceives that the multilateralism and active overseas involvement pursued by America since the end of the Cold War have weakened America and pushed it into crisis. Regardless of right or wrong, our task is to observe the changing America as it is and consider how to respond.

Even if Trump steps down as president in four years, the America transformed by Trump cannot return to the past. The perception that "we just need to endure Trump's term" could lead us to face even greater crises. After the unexpected collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, which ended the Cold War, we were able to seize opportunities and achieve sustained growth amid rapid changes. January 2025 is a time to recognize upcoming changes not with vague fear but as new opportunities and chances for a leap forward, and to consider how to utilize them.

Choi Jun-young, Legal Expert at Yulchon LLC (Global Law & Policy)

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.