If This Continues, 4 Billion Will Die... 'Earth Bankruptcy' Scenario Emerges

If Global Temperatures Rise by More Than 3 Degrees Celsius,
4 Billion People Could Die, Warns Report

A warning has been issued that if urgent action is not taken on decarbonization, half of the world's gross domestic product (GDP) could disappear between 2070 and 2090.

According to The Guardian on the 16th (local time), the UK Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) analyzed in a report released that day that without urgent measures to reduce carbon, in the worst case, the global economy could suffer such damage over 20 years until 2090.

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The report predicted that if the Earth's temperature rises more than 3 degrees Celsius by 2050, 4 billion people could die due to warming-related diseases, malnutrition, water shortages, and conflicts, and significant socio-political divisions would emerge worldwide. Furthermore, it forecasted government failures and resulting capital losses, ecosystem collapse, and severe impacts on ocean circulation. It also warned that major species extinctions could follow.

The report argued that all previous economic impact assessments of the climate crisis were wrong because they did not consider severe effects such as tipping points, sea-level rise, large-scale migration, and conflicts.

Children playing in the water during the heatwave. Photo by Yonhap News

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the average global temperature over the past year was more than 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels (1850?1900). The pace of warming is accelerating, potentially bringing us to tipping points. The report pointed out that there is a time lag between carbon emissions and global warming, meaning that if emissions are not reduced, warming will intensify further.

Sandy Trust, IFoA director and lead author of this report, said there is currently no realistic plan to avoid the scenarios predicted in the report. She also criticized the prediction that the impact of a 3-degree Celsius rise in average surface temperature would only amount to 2% of global GDP as inaccurate, accusing political leaders of turning a blind eye to the risks of their policies. She expressed concern, saying, "Considering these risks, the world faces the danger of 'Earth bankruptcy,' where the Earth system collapses and humans can no longer receive the critical supplies needed to sustain society and the economy."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.