Amundi "US terminal rate 3.5% by end of next year... Expansion of stock investment scope"

Amundi, one of the world's top 10 asset management firms, announced its '2025 Global Investment Outlook' on the 19th (local time) in Paris, France. Despite the world becoming fragmented due to geopolitical conflicts and rapid policy changes, it advised investors to seek new investment opportunities during this process. Amundi is also the second-largest shareholder of NH-Amundi Asset Management.

It forecasted that the global growth rate will slow to 3.0% in 2025 and 2026. It also judged that the growth rate gap between emerging markets and developed markets is likely to stabilize. Over the next two years, emerging markets and developed markets are expected to grow by 3.9% and 1.6%, respectively.

Specifically, the U.S. economy is expected to slow moderately and achieve a soft landing. The European economy is projected to recover gradually and steadily, reaching its potential growth rate. Despite the slowdown in China, Asia is expected to remain a key driver of global growth.

With confirmed easing of inflation, central banks in the U.S. and Europe are likely to continue lowering interest rates. By the end of 2025, the terminal rates are expected to be 3.5% in the U.S., 2.25% in the Eurozone, and 3.5% in the U.K. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates twice more. Emerging markets may pursue more independent monetary policies.

Vincent Mortier, CIO (Chief Investment Officer) of the Amundi Group, said, "Next year, balancing inflation risks and capturing opportunities in risk assets will be key," adding, "Investors need to expand their equity investment scope beyond just U.S. mega-cap stocks."

Monica Defend, Head of Investment Research at Amundi, stated, "There are many positives amid the anomalies," advising, "It will be as important to identify opportunities created by policy choices and geopolitical changes as it is to protect against the risks arising from them."

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