[US Election 2024] Europe Wants Harris... What About the 'Anti-US Alliance' of China, Russia, and Iran?

Countries Worldwide Tense Ahead of Presidential Election
EU Expected to Uphold Multilateralism and International Cooperation
Analysis Suggests Harris Will Likely Win

China Seems to Prefer Predictable Harris
Russia May Favor Trump Who Could Cause Division
Iran Seeking Nuclear Deal Restoration Likely Supports Harris

In the upcoming U.S. presidential election, countries around the world appear to be weighing which candidate?Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris or Republican former President Donald Trump?would better serve their national interests.

According to major foreign media and reports on the 3rd, while governments around the world do not officially endorse any candidate in the U.S. presidential election, many secretly favor one candidate after carefully considering their own interests.

According to the report "The Global Impact of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election" published by the U.S. think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) last September, the European Union (EU) seems to be hoping for Vice President Harris's victory. The EU expects that if Harris is elected president, she will continue the Biden administration's multilateralism and international cooperation policies.

CSIS stated, "Under the Joe Biden administration, we have witnessed alignment with the EU on China policy, the Russia-Ukraine war, and economic security, and an unprecedented strengthening of U.S.-EU relations."

There are several reasons why the EU does not want former President Trump to return to power. First, a second Trump administration is expected to pressure defense spending by raising the possibility of withdrawing from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Also, the tariffs imposed on EU steel and aluminum since 2018, which the Biden administration has agreed to suspend until March 2025, are likely to be reinstated. Since Trump criticized environmental policies as the "Green New Scam," a clash over climate crisis policies seems inevitable.

The U.S. government has identified that Russia, China, and Iran?countries aligned in an anti-Western coalition?are using artificial intelligence (AI) and other means online to spread fake propaganda to influence the U.S. election. This has drawn attention to which presidential candidate these countries might be covertly supporting.

In China's case, it appears to have low expectations regardless of which candidate wins, as a tough stance toward China is expected to continue. Former President Trump threatened a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, and Vice President Harris is expected to continue the Biden administration's export controls on advanced technology and high tariffs.

However, foreign media have reported that "the Chinese government likely considers Vice President Harris to be a better option than former President Trump." China is currently implementing various stimulus measures to escape the ongoing deflationary spiral (economic downturn with falling prices), and there are concerns that a Trump victory could increase unpredictability. Bloomberg explained, "Given China's current situation, it is clear that China prefers Harris's continuity because her election would provide external stability."

There is also analysis that China does not welcome former President Trump from a Northeast Asian security perspective. The Indian think tank Observer Research Foundation (ORF) recently reported, "Trump's isolationist military stance could strengthen nuclear armament movements in East Asian countries such as South Korea and Japan, and alliances among these countries could become much more difficult for China to manage."

Russia, which has been at war with Ukraine for over two and a half years, is said to prefer a candidate who could deepen political divisions in the U.S. The American media outlet Benzinga cited the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) in September, reporting, "In this election, Russia believes Trump would be advantageous to its strategic interests and is therefore exerting influence in support of Trump."

Iran, which is experiencing escalating conflict with Israel, is believed to favor Vice President Harris. Former President Trump unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA?Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) in 2018, claiming it failed to effectively curb Iran's nuclear development, and reinstated stronger economic sanctions. Iran, hoping for the restoration of the nuclear deal, is thought to want Harris as president because she shares the progressive values of former President Barack Obama, who led the 2015 nuclear agreement.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.