"Uncertain if Japan's LDP Can Secure Solo Majority"...Will the Nightmare from 15 Years Ago Repeat?

Liberal Democratic Party Fails to Secure Solo Majority in 2009 General Election
Expected to Maintain Parliamentary Control Through Komeito Coalition

In the upcoming Japanese House of Representatives (Lower House) election on the 27th, there is an analysis that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may fail to secure an outright majority of seats. The last time the LDP lost its majority status in the parliament was in the 45th general election held in 2009. However, it is expected that the ruling coalition with the Komeito Party will maintain control within the parliament.

Based on an internet poll conducted by Mainichi Shimbun on the 15th and 16th (with 189,642 respondents), the early election forecast suggests that the LDP will win between 203 and 250 of the total 465 seats in the House of Representatives, reported on the 17th. The general election on the 27th will determine the owners of all 465 seats, combining 289 single-member districts (constituencies) nationwide and 176 proportional representation seats across 11 regions.

[Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

Currently, the LDP holds 247 seats, but the prevailing assessment is that the number of seats will decrease due to the backlash from the 'slush fund scandal.' This means there is a possibility that the LDP will fail to secure the 233 seats needed for an outright majority. The last time the LDP lost its majority status was in the House of Representatives election held in August 2009. At that time, the LDP suffered a crushing defeat to the Democratic Party, winning only 119 seats and experiencing the humiliation of becoming the second-largest party for the first time since its founding in 1955.

Mainichi pointed out that although the LDP’s seats are likely to decrease, winning in closely contested districts could still make an outright majority possible. In particular, it projected the Komeito Party’s expected seats to be between 24 and 29, and predicted that the ruling coalition of the LDP and Komeito will maintain a majority of seats. Currently, the Komeito Party holds 32 seats, and together with the LDP, they occupy 60% of the seats in the House of Representatives.

The Yomiuri Shimbun also reported, based on telephone and internet surveys conducted over the past two days, that the LDP-Komeito ruling coalition is expected to secure a majority of seats, but the Constitutional Democratic Party is anticipated to gain ground due to political funding issues. Kyodo News noted that while the ruling coalition is stagnant, the Constitutional Democratic Party is gaining momentum; however, about 30% of voters in constituencies remain undecided, leaving room for shifts in voter sentiment.

Bloomberg News stated, "Even if the LDP loses its majority status, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will not be stripped of his position, but he may need to pay more attention to the policy preferences of the Komeito Party, which has roots in the Buddhist community." It pointed out, "Prime Minister Ishiba, who strongly supports increasing defense spending, is planning an 'Asian version of NATO' with Pacific regional allies, but the Komeito Party wants to impose restrictions on the use of military force."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.