Ahead of Jo Tae-yeol's first China visit in 6 years, will he find a breakthrough in 'North Korea-China-Russia closeness'?

First South Korean Foreign Minister Since Kang Kyung-wha
Expected to Urge 'Constructive Role' Amid Close North Korea-China-Russia Ties
Experts Say "Many Agendas Including Supply Chains and Indo-Pacific Strategy"

Attention is focused on whether Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul, who is about to make his first visit to China, can find a breakthrough in the closely-knit triangular relationship among North Korea, China, and Russia. South Korea faces two challenges: improving relations with China while pressuring North Korea to play a 'constructive role.'

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is pushing for Minister Cho's visit to China ahead of the anticipated Korea-China-Japan summit scheduled for the 26th to 27th. A government official told Asia Economy on the 7th, "The schedule could be announced as early as this week," adding, "We are in the final stages of negotiations over detailed matters." A senior official from the Korean Embassy in China also told Korean correspondents the previous day, "We are discussing the schedule and agenda and are in the final coordination phase."

First Trip to Beijing in 6 Years... Will It Induce a Change in China's Attitude?

Cho Tae-yeol, Minister of Foreign Affairs [Photo by Yonhap News]

If the visit to China materializes, it will be the first visit to Beijing by a South Korean foreign minister in six and a half years. The last visit was by then-Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha during the Moon Jae-in administration in November 2017. The two countries' top diplomats are expected to discuss the direction of Korea-China relations, early attempts at high-level exchanges, supply chain restructuring, and the North Korean nuclear issue. These topics were also raised during the first phone call between Minister Cho and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in February.

Minister Cho is expected to finalize the schedule for the Korea-China-Japan summit planned for the end of this month while reiterating China's 'constructive role' regarding North Korea. Despite instability in the international order due to war and other factors, North Korea continues to focus on nuclear and missile development, and China and Russia have taken on the role of 'backers' who turn a blind eye to North Korea's illegal activities, such as intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launches. Recently, the activities of the UN Security Council's expert panel on North Korean sanctions ended due to Russia's veto.

However, unlike Russia, which has blatantly violated North Korean sanctions by trading weapons or providing luxury goods, China seeks 'international status' as a counterpart to the United States. This means there is room for South Korea to induce a change in China's attitude through diplomatic management. The mere resumption of high-level dialogue between the two countries is seen as a meaningful visit to China. Although the foreign ministry officially denies it, there is a possibility that schedule coordination for the summit and President Xi Jinping's request to visit South Korea may also be discussed.

Moon Sung-mook, head of the Unification Strategy Center at the Korea Institute for National Strategy, evaluated, "It is difficult to fundamentally change China's attitude, but the restoration of communication channels makes Minister Cho's visit meaningful." He added, "President Xi Jinping likely wants to improve his image regarding relations with the United States and Europe, so from that perspective, a clear request for peace on the Korean Peninsula and China's constructive role regarding North Korea should be made."

Park Won-gon, professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, predicted, "Agenda coordination ahead of the summit will likely be discussed during the visit. From South Korea's perspective, the most important thing is the summit with President Xi Jinping, so a request for a visit to South Korea will be made, and dialogue on that will likely follow." He continued, "There are clear differences in perspectives between Korea and China, but precisely because of that, there are more agendas to discuss. Regarding supply chain restructuring, South Korea will not exclude China, but it will have to convey that it is difficult to side with China at the expense of its alliance with the United States."

'Deportation to North Korea' Resurfaces Ahead of Diplomatic Leaders' Meeting

North Korean defectors waiting for third-country resettlement at Chiang Saen Police Station, Chiang Rai Province, Thailand, May 2007 [Image source=Yonhap News]

There is also a sensitive issue ahead of the meeting between the two countries' top diplomats. Following China's mass deportation of 500 to 600 North Korean defectors residing in China last October, claims have emerged that around 200 defectors have been deported again recently. The Yoon Seok-youl administration has pursued a diplomatic policy emphasizing 'universal values' such as human rights, while China, closely aligned with North Korea and Russia, seeks to maintain its influence over North Korea, highlighting a clear difference in positions between the two countries.

Center head Moon Sung-mook said, "China is also a signatory to the Refugee Convention, but it seems to regard North Korean defectors as 'illegal entrants.' Whether officially or unofficially, it should be clearly stated that this is detrimental to China's image and inappropriate as a signatory to the Refugee Convention." Professor Park Won-gon predicted, "Since the government has consistently expressed opposition to deportations, this will likely be one of the important agenda items this time as well."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.