[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Quiet North Korea... Preparing for High-Intensity Military Provocation?

Quiet Even on Political Anniversaries Like Solar Day This Month
Technical Improvements Pending, Coordinating Russian Technology Transfer

North Korea is quiet. It was expected to launch additional military reconnaissance satellites from mid-this month, but there has been no movement. Some evaluations suggest that the launch is being postponed due to technical improvements not being completed.

North Korea put its first military reconnaissance satellite, Manlilkyung-1, into orbit last November. At the Workers' Party plenary meeting held in December of the same year, it declared that it would launch three additional reconnaissance satellites in 2024. Defense Minister Shin Won-sik also said on the 8th that the timing of North Korea's second military reconnaissance satellite launch would be "mid-April if technical improvements proceed smoothly," adding, "Since the 15th (Kim Il-sung's birthday, the Day of the Sun) is a special day in North Korea, they will try to launch around that time, but if it is delayed by a few days, it is reasonable to keep the window open until the end of April."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The military satellite launch has passed the Day of the Sun. Predictions that it might be launched on the 25th, the founding day of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army, were also off. The Korean People's Revolutionary Army is an armed organization said to have been formed by Kim Il-sung during the anti-Japanese movement and was once designated as a North Korean military commemorative day with large-scale events held.

There is also an assessment that the launch preparations were completed but then canceled. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think tank in Washington DC, released an analysis of satellite images of the West Sea Satellite Launching Station taken earlier this month through the North Korea specialist site 'Beyond Parallel.'

CSIS focused on activities around the VIP observation post, which North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un frequently visits to watch satellite launches and engine tests, as well as the administrative and security headquarters. Satellite images taken on the 8th showed three vehicles at the VIP observation post. CSIS estimated that these vehicles were likely communication, broadcasting, and telemetry/tracking vehicles usually deployed before satellite launches, and assessed that North Korea had planned a military reconnaissance satellite launch.

Launch Preparations Completed but Possible Cancellation Due to Technical Improvements

However, satellite images taken on the 10th showed that only one of the vehicles observed in the two areas two days earlier remained. CSIS suggested that North Korea prepared for the military reconnaissance satellite launch but canceled it for unknown reasons, stating, "The fact that one vehicle remains indicates that the launch has been postponed, but preparations for an expected launch in the near future continue."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

North Korea has not yet notified international organizations. In the past, whenever North Korea launched satellites, it gave prior notice to Japan, the regional navigation warning coordinator for the area including South and North Korea under the Worldwide Navigational Warning Service (WWNWS). This implies that conditions are not yet suitable for launching military satellites for the time being.

However, the possibility of a launch in the future remains high. Commander Steven, currently on a tour of Asian countries, said at an online press conference on the 24th, "We are closely monitoring North Korea's missile development and satellite launches," and predicted, "North Korea wants to launch more satellites."

Only technical issues remain. Russian President Putin, who met with Chairman Kim Jong-un last year, promised technology transfer, and if applied starting with the reconnaissance satellite to be launched this time, it is expected that the process will be handled with caution.

High-Intensity Provocations Expected Including Satellite Launch and 7th Nuclear Test

Warnings about the possibility of a 7th nuclear test following the satellite launch are also continuing. North Korea announced on the 22nd that it conducted a nuclear counterattack exercise under the leadership of Chairman Kim Jong-un using the 'nuclear trigger' system, a national comprehensive nuclear weapons management system, related to the short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) launched into the East Sea. In addition to the nuclear trigger, it also revealed for the first time the 'volcano warning,' the nation's highest nuclear crisis alert system.

This is analyzed as a prelude to conducting the 7th nuclear test. Lee Sang-gyu, a research fellow at the Security Strategy Research Center of the Korea Defense Research Institute, predicted at the NK Forum held on the 22nd at the Westin Chosun Hotel in Seoul, themed "Prospects and Countermeasures for North Korea's 7th Nuclear Test," that North Korea might forcibly conduct the 7th nuclear test before the U.S. presidential election in November, aiming to verify the completeness of its nuclear weapons and secure bargaining power with the U.S.

The type of nuclear test is expected to be either a tactical nuclear warhead test revealed in 2023, a super-large nuclear warhead test, or simultaneous chain tests of tactical and super-large nuclear warheads.

Military authorities strongly warned about North Korea's 'nuclear counterattack comprehensive tactical exercise' using the super-large multiple rocket launcher (KN-25), saying, "They have not miniaturized tactical nuclear weapons enough to be loaded on this weapon system," and "If North Korea attempts to use nuclear weapons, the North Korean regime will face its end."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.