"US Authorities Warn of Imminent Iranian Airstrikes on Israel"...Concerns Over 5th Middle East War Eruption
Concerns Over Large-Scale Escalation in Full-Scale Israel-Iran War
U.S. and Western intelligence agencies have warned Israel of a possible airstrike by Iran. As the conflict between Israel and Hamas surpasses six months, there is a possibility of escalation into a full-scale war between Israel and Iran, potentially triggering the Fifth Middle East War. Diplomatic missions stationed in Israel are reportedly preparing emergency evacuation plans, causing significant fluctuations not only in Middle East geopolitics but also in international oil prices.
U.S. Intelligence: "Iran Drone and Missile Attacks Imminent"
On the 10th (local time), Bloomberg News cited a U.S. intelligence official saying, "The United States and its Western allies believe that Iran will soon carry out a large-scale missile or unmanned aerial vehicle (drone) attack on Israeli military or government facilities," adding, "Some believe it could happen within the next few days."
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has also hinted at strong retaliation against Israel. On the same day, following Eid al-Fitr prayers (the holiday marking the end of Ramadan), Khamenei stated in a speech, "The Zionist regime (Israel) made the mistake of attacking Iran's diplomatic mission in Syria," warning, "The evil regime must be punished, and it will be."
He further harshly criticized Israel, which continued its war even during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, as well as Western countries including the U.S., accusing them of being complicit. Khamenei said, "They continued killing defenseless people, including women and children, during Ramadan," and "The West supported such Israel and failed to stop the Gaza war."
The retaliation Khamenei referred to relates to the incident on the 1st, when the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, was destroyed by an Israeli airstrike, killing Iranian officers. At least seven Iranian officers, including Mohammad Reza Zahedi, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), died in the attack. Since then, Iran has consistently hinted at retaliation against Israel.
"Diplomatic Missions in Israel Preparing Emergency Evacuation Plans"...International Oil Prices Surge
If Iran proceeds with a direct attack on Israel, Israel is likely to retaliate with airstrikes on Iranian mainland, raising the possibility of a full-scale war between the two countries. Should the ongoing six-month conflict between Israel and Hamas escalate into a confrontation between Israel and Iran, it cannot be ruled out that the entire Middle Eastern Shia militia groups allied with Iran will join the war, potentially igniting the Fifth Middle East War.
Diplomatic missions from various countries stationed in Israel are reportedly beginning preparations for emergency evacuation. Bloomberg News, citing sources, reported, "Western diplomats stationed in Israel are preparing emergency plans, including generators and satellite phones," adding, "The first attack is expected to target major Israeli cities, with Tel Aviv and the surrounding metropolitan area as possible targets."
Amid rising military tensions in the Middle East, Iranian authorities have even hinted at the possibility of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, causing international oil prices to fluctuate. On the same day, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose 1.2% to close at $86.21 per barrel, while North Sea Brent crude also increased 1.2% to $90.48 per barrel.
Ali Reza Tangsiri, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy, emphasized, "We can block the Strait of Hormuz but are not doing so," adding, "If the enemy interferes with us, we may consider it."
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The Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has hinted at blocking, is a major shipping route through which 20% of the world's daily oil maritime transport passes. If this route is blocked, oil prices, already rising due to the Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict, are feared to soar well above $100 per barrel. John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC, explained, "The market has been very sensitive to news from the Gaza Strip and will continue to react."
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