[Nomination Analysis] 42% Turnover of Democratic Party Incumbents... Non-Myeong Members Cry Out

Incumbent Replacement Rate Hits 42%... One-Third Are 'First-Term'
All Top Officials Secure Main Election, 7inhoe Also Nominated Unopposed
Constituencies Where Bimyeong Faction Was Pushed Out See Pro-Myung Faction Outsiders' Rise

The Democratic Party of Korea underwent a reshuffle, replacing 4 out of 10 incumbents. The mainstream faction secured the nomination tickets. A significant number of the non-mainstream faction either lost in the primaries due to 'low evaluation' penalties or defected from the party. In their place, pro-Lee Jae-myung faction's non-incumbent figures made significant advances.

Ahead of the 22nd general election, the Democratic Party fielded candidates in 246 out of 254 constituencies. In 8 constituencies, no candidates were nominated due to opposition party unification and other reasons. As of January 5 this year, when the nomination management committee was launched, 71 out of 167 incumbents (including proportional representatives), or 42.5%, did not receive nominations due to cutoffs, primary losses, or defections. Compared to the 21st general election (27.9%) and the 20th general election (33.3%), the incumbent replacement rate has significantly increased.

The incumbent replacement rate is considered an indicator of reform. However, among the 71 replaced incumbents, 21 (29.6%) were first-term lawmakers, leading to criticism that this cannot be seen as a result of 'giving up vested interests.' In the 'stronghold' of Gwangju, 7 out of 8 first-term lawmakers were replaced en masse. Among former lawmakers running again, including 'old boys' Park Ji-won and Jung Dong-young, 13 ran, and among 16 proportional representatives, 3 lawmakers including Kim Byung-joo, Lee Soo-jin, and Jeon Yong-gi received nominations.

The mainstream faction settled in smoothly. All seven top committee members, including five elected officials such as Jeong Cheong-rae, Go Min-jeong, Park Chan-dae, Seo Young-kyo, and Jang Kyung-tae, as well as non-incumbent appointees Seo Eun-sook and Park Jeong-hyun, entered without contest. Pro-Lee Jae-myung faction's 'five-term' Cho Jung-sik, secretary-general, Kim Byung-gi, senior deputy secretary-general, and Cheon Jun-ho, party leader's secretary office chief, also received uncontested nominations early and boarded the train to the main election. The '7-member group,' classified as close aides of leader Lee Jae-myung, also retained their positions. Except for lawmaker Kim Nam-guk who defected amid coin controversy, former lawmaker Lee Gyu-min who was disqualified due to violation of the Public Official Election Act, and former lawmaker Lim Jong-sung who lost his seat in February this year due to real estate speculation allegations, lawmakers Jeong Seong-ho, Kim Young-jin, Kim Byung-wook, and Moon Jin-seok all received uncontested nominations in their constituencies.

Constituencies where incumbents declared not to run or were pushed out due to primary losses were taken over by pro-Lee Jae-myung faction's non-incumbent figures. In Seoul Dobong-gu Gap (In Jae-geun), spokesperson Ahn Gwi-ryeong; Seoul Eunpyeong-gu Eul (Kang Byung-won), former Gangwon Provincial Party Committee Chairman Kim Woo-young; Incheon Seo-gu Eul (Shin Dong-geun), former party leader's secretary office deputy chief Mo Kyung-jong; Gwangju Seo-gu Gap (Song Gap-seok), former Gwangju City Culture and Economy Deputy Mayor Jo In-cheol; Gwangju Buk-gu Gap (Jo Oh-seop), Policy Committee Vice Chairman Jeong Jun-ho planted their flags. In the case of candidate Jeong Jun-ho, although allegations of 'illegal primaries' were raised, the leadership decided to maintain the nomination on the grounds that 'there is no connection with the candidate.'

Refuting 'Pro-Lee Jae-myung's windfall, Non-mainstream's downfall'... 66% of nominations from the Open Camp

The party leadership consistently denied the evaluation of 'Pro-Lee Jae-myung's windfall, Non-mainstream's downfall.' On the 8th, Secretary-General Cho Jung-sik said during a briefing on the nomination committee's activities, "It is unclear among Democratic Party lawmakers who are pro-Lee and who are non-mainstream," adding, "It would be more reasonable to analyze based on those who participated in Lee Jae-myung's camp during the last presidential primary."

Counting the nomination status of incumbents who were active in Lee Jae-myung's 'Open Camp' during the party primary ahead of the 20th presidential election, 36 out of 54 (66.7%) received constituency nominations. Among them, 20 received uncontested nominations, and 16 won through primaries. Those who secured early uncontested nominations and confirmed their place in the main election include the aforementioned pro-Lee leadership and '7-member group' members.

Among the 18 who did not receive nominations, 12 lost in primaries or were cut off, including Kwon In-sook, Kim Kyung-man, Byun Jae-il, Song Jae-ho, Ahn Min-seok, Yang Yi-won-young, Yoo Jeong-joo, Yoon Young-duk, Lee Dong-joo, Lee Hyung-seok, Choi Hye-young, and Hong Jeong-min. Nearly half, 5, are proportional representatives. Although lawmakers Byun Jae-il and Ahn Min-seok are cited as exceptions to the 'Pro-Lee windfall,' the general assessment is that they are not part of the party mainstream. The rest include lawmakers Lee Tan-hee, Lim Jong-sung, and Jeong Pil-mo who declared not to run, and defectors Lee Sang-heon, Lee Soo-jin, and Hwang Un-ha. Lawmaker Hwang moved to the Joguk Innovation Party and ran as a proportional representative.

Confident in '200 seats'... Leadership keeps quiet to avoid backlash

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is holding green onions and speaking during his visit to the Tojigeumgo Market in Michuhol-gu, Incheon on the 20th. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

The Democratic Party aims for a 'majority of seats.' On the 15th, Strategy Headquarters Chief Han Byung-do said at a press briefing at the party headquarters, "Considering the overall situation by region, we expect to win about 130 to 140 seats in constituencies." Regarding the opposition satellite party The Democratic Alliance, he said, "Based on external opinion poll averages, we expect 13 seats plus alpha (α)." They analyze that they could secure up to a maximum of '153 seats.'

Voices confident of an unprecedented '200 seats' also emerged. Lawmaker Kim Gyo-heung (Incheon Seo-gu Gap) said at Jeongseo-jin Central Market in Incheon, where leader Lee Jae-myung campaigned, "If 14 seats are won in Incheon, we can secure 200 seats." Former National Intelligence Service Director Park Ji-won said on the radio, "If the democratic progressive reform forces secure 200 seats, they can conduct a 'Kim Geon-hee special investigation' and even impeach President Yoon Seok-youl."

The leadership has started to 'keep quiet' for now. This is interpreted as a concern over backlash from excessive optimism. Kim Min-seok, Situation Room Chief of the Election Countermeasures Committee, told reporters at the National Assembly the day before, "The election race is a very tough neck-and-neck battle," adding, "Recently, there have been personal remarks that are not aligned with the public's expectations, such as excessive confidence in the number of seats or excessive political goals. We strongly warn against this."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.