[Reading Science] "Arctic Cold Wave in the Korean Peninsula to Continue for 10 Years"

GIST International Research Team Outlook
Decline in Arctic Cold Waves Expected from the 2040s

Amid global warming, it is predicted that the Arctic cold wave causing the Korean Peninsula to be colder than Russia will continue for the next decade. However, the cold wave is expected to subside thereafter.

An international joint research team led by Professor Jin-Ho Yoon of the Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering at Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (GIST, President Ki-Cheol Lim) analyzed the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Project (CESM1 LENS) data and forecasted on the 20th that after the mid-21st century, around 2040, the "Warm Arctic Cold Continent" phenomenon will significantly decrease, leading to a reduction in winter cold waves on the Korean Peninsula.

The tidal flats around Maehyang Port in Ujeong-eup, Hwaseong-si, Gyeonggi-do were frozen on January 23, when the cold wave was at its peak. [Image source=Yonhap News]

Although atmospheric temperatures are rising due to global warming, some regions are experiencing localized severe cold waves. This occurs when cold Arctic air masses push southward. Last winter, the Korean Peninsula was frequently hit by Arctic air, causing sudden temperature drops. This explains why Seoul's temperature at the end of January was colder than Moscow's. In the United States, cold waves also struck mainly the central regions, causing significant damage.

The research team projected that as global warming accelerates, the "Warm Arctic Cold Continent" phenomenon, caused by the weakening of the Arctic vortex that blocks cold Arctic winds from moving south, will gradually increase until the 2030s. This means Arctic-origin cold waves are likely to occur frequently over the next ten years.

However, the team estimated that as global warming continues, cold Arctic air will no longer move southward, and the frequency of the Warm Arctic Cold Continent phenomenon will steadily decrease thereafter.

Professor Jin-Ho Yoon stated, "Understanding these changes will contribute to establishing effective climate change response strategies in regions experiencing Arctic-origin cold waves."

On January 13th (local time), the city of Des Moines in Iowa, USA, was hit by an 'Arctic cold wave.' [Image source=Yonhap News]

This study was led by Professor Jin-Ho Yoon and PhD candidate Yoon-Ki Hong of GIST’s Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, with participation from Professor Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang of Utah State University, Professors Seok-Woo Son and Sang-Woo Kim of Seoul National University, Professor Ji-Hoon Jung of Chonnam National University, Professor Baek-Min Kim of Pukyong National University, and Professor Hyung-Jun Kim of KAIST.

The research was supported by the Korea Research Foundation’s Basic Technology Development Project for Marine and Polar Sciences and the Mid-Career Research Program.

The results were published online on March 11, 2024, in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, a sister journal of Nature, a prestigious international journal in meteorology.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.