What is Plan B for the Third Zone that Failed at 'Isakjupgi'?

Im Jong-seok Remains in Democratic Party, Sae Mirae Disappointed
Lee Jun-seok Burdened by Lack of Figures to Join TK
Focus on Election Pledge Issues Over Expansion of Three Factions

As the nomination of district candidates by the People Power Party and the Democratic Party of Korea enters its final stages, analyses suggest that the plan to expand the third zone's forces has effectively failed. Initially, there were expectations of so-called 'gleaning,' recruiting incumbent lawmakers who defected from the two major parties' nominations. However, contrary to expectations, these lawmakers either remained in their parties or sought to consolidate independent forces rather than joining the third zone. The Reform New Party and New Future, which aimed for candidate number 3, have shifted their strategy from 'increasing forces' to forming 'multi-candidate races' in key districts, continuing to generate issues.

Lee Jun-seok, leader of the Reform New Party, and Lee Nak-yeon, leader of New Future, each announced their candidacies for Hwaseong and Gwangju respectively the day before, seeking a turning point following the failure of 'gleaning.' It is interpreted that the decision for Lee Jun-seok to run in Hwaseong was mainly influenced by the judgment that it could create synergy within the 'semiconductor belt' alongside Yang Hyang-ja, floor leader (Yongin Gap, Gyeonggi), and Lee Won-wook (Hwaseong Jeong, Gyeonggi).

Initially, Lee Jun-seok considered running in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk (TK) region at the request of Kim Jong-in, chairman of the Reform New Party's nomination committee, but it is analyzed that he ultimately judged his competitiveness in that region to be low. Earlier, Lee Jun-seok expressed concerns about running in TK on Catholic Peace Broadcasting Corporation (CPBC) radio last month, saying, "The People Power Party candidates in Daegu will face challenges, and support from the central party will come, so it will be a very lonely fight."

Lee Jun-seok, leader of the Reform New Party, is speaking at the Supreme Council meeting at the National Assembly on the 28th. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

Experts also pointed to the 'lack of suitable candidates' as the decisive reason why Lee Jun-seok chose Hwaseong over TK. It was initially expected that securing defected incumbent lawmakers from the People Power Party would create synergy in TK, but the recruitment of personnel fell short of expectations. Political commentator Park Sang-byeong told Asia Economy in an interview, "Since the People Power Party, as the ruling party, has many opportunities, there is little reason for candidates who lost nominations to leave and join a third zone new party," adding, "In Lee Jun-seok's case, running alone in TK would mean he could not establish a foothold, which likely caused significant concern."

Lee Nak-yeon also faced a turning point in 'force expansion' when former Blue House Chief of Staff Lim Jong-seok decided to remain in the Democratic Party the day before. Political analysts initially believed that Lim would leave the Democratic Party and join New Future. Former National Assembly Deputy Speaker Lee Seok-hyun even claimed, "Until 7 p.m. yesterday (the 3rd), Lim promised to leave the Democratic Party on the premise of joining New Future." For New Future, Lim's decision to stay in the party inevitably disrupted their strategy to consolidate pro-Moon Jae-in forces and form the 'Real Democratic Party.'

Lee Nak-yeon, co-representative of Saeroun Mirae, is attending a press conference held at the Saeroun Mirae party headquarters in Yeouido, Seoul, on the morning of the 20th. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

The possibility of unifying defected Democratic Party lawmakers into a single force also poses a variable for Lee Nak-yeon. As of now, nine lawmakers have left the Democratic Party ahead of the general election: Lee Sang-heon, Lee Sang-min, Kim Jong-min, Lee Won-wook, Cho Eung-cheon, Kim Young-joo, Lee Soo-jin, Park Young-soon, and Seol Hoon. Lawmaker Hong Young-pyo is also likely to leave the party as early as this week. Led by Seol Hoon and Hong Young-pyo, the Democratic Solidarity (tentative name) is considering running in the general election, and in this case, they might secure candidate number 3. Lee Nak-yeon is drawing up plans for integration with this Democratic Solidarity, but the mixture of pro-Moon (pro-Moon Jae-in) forces and anti-Lee Jae-myung figures makes the situation difficult.

Given these circumstances, the Reform New Party and New Future are expected to shift their focus from expanding forces to competing on policy pledges. The Reform New Party is scheduled to announce an economic policy related to the formation of financial assets for children in households below the median income this afternoon. New Future will also announce a medical support pledge for senior citizens on the same day. A New Future official said, "Although there is a sense of regret within the party over Lim's decision, we believe the atmosphere will change significantly once the full-scale election campaign begins."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.