The New Future Party and the Democratic Party's 'Nomination Turmoil' They Can't Laugh About

If More Than 10 Members Leave, Possibility of Forming Own Faction Increases
Saemirae, Picking Up Leftovers May Become an Obstacle
Advancement of Joguk New Party Also Likely to Be a Hindrance

As the nomination turmoil within the Democratic Party led by Lee Nak-yeon expands, there is an analysis that it could rather increase difficulties in expanding its influence. If the scale of pro-Moon Jae-in (Chinmun) and anti-Lee Jae-myung (Bimyeong) figures excluded from the Democratic Party's general election nominations exceeds expectations, it is anticipated that they themselves could form a new party and consolidate power.

According to the opposition on the 28th, Democratic Party lawmaker Seol Hoon (Gyeonggi Bucheon-si Eul) declared his resignation from the party that morning. Lawmaker Seol stated, "I was belittled and mocked as a bottom 10% lawmaker simply for criticizing Lee Jae-myung." Seol Hoon is the fourth Democratic Party defector following Kim Young-joo, Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly (Seoul Yeongdeungpo Gap), Lee Soo-jin (Seoul Dongjak Eul), and Park Young-soon (Daejeon Daedeok-gu).

The possibility of defections among so-called 'Myeolmun Party' pro-Moon figures is also increasing. The future of key pro-Moon lawmakers such as Hong Young-pyo (Incheon Bupyeong Eul), the leader of the faction, as well as Jeon Hae-cheol (Gyeonggi Ansan Sangnok-gu Gap), is uncertain due to delayed nominations, the cut-off (nomination exclusion) of former presidential secretary Im Jong-seok, and the bottom 10% notification to lawmaker Yoon Young-chan (Gyeonggi Seongnam Jungwon-gu).

Lee Nak-yeon, co-representative of the New Future, is entering the National Assembly on the 27th for a press conference announcing talent recruitment. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

In political circles, it is expected that if the number of Democratic Party defectors reaches double digits or more, they will gain justification to form a new party. Some anti-Lee figures have already begun organizing a defector coalition under the tentative name 'Democratic Solidarity.'

For Saeroun Mirae, which positions itself as the 'real Democratic Party,' the increase in defections from the Democratic Party could become an unexpected variable in consolidating their base. If these defectors consolidate their own forces, the so-called 'gleaning' opportunities will decrease accordingly.

There is also speculation that the so-called 'Cho Kuk Party' (tentative name) could receive a large amount of reflected benefits. It is interpreted that pro-Moon defectors might join forces with former Minister of Justice Cho Kuk, a core pro-Moon figure, rather than with the anti-Lee Saeroun Mirae. In fact, recent party support ratings show that the Cho Kuk Party overwhelmingly surpasses existing third-party parties such as Saeroun Mirae and the Reform New Party. According to a public opinion poll conducted by 'Poll Fairness' on the 22nd-23rd, commissioned by The Public and Finance Today, surveying 1,001 voters (100% wireless RDD method, 95% confidence level with ±3.1% margin of error, 4.7% response rate), the Cho Kuk Party's party support rating ranked third at 5.8%, following the People Power Party (44.0%) and the Democratic Party (36.6%). This figure is ahead of the Reform New Party (4.0%) and Saeroun Mirae (1.8%).

For more details, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.