Criticism Floods Jo Guk's New Party, Will It Have Impact? [What Do You Think]

Guilty Verdict in Second Trial for Child Admission Corruption
Criticism Continues Over Party Formation for Protection
Democrats Draw Line on 'Semi-Linked System'
Key Issue: Lawmakers Joining New Party

Criticism is pouring in regarding former Minister of Justice Cho Kuk's formation of a new political party. Despite being sentenced to two years in prison in the second trial on the 8th for charges including his children's admission fraud and covering up Blue House inspections, he abruptly declared the establishment of a new party. If the sentence is confirmed by the Supreme Court, even if he enters the National Assembly, his membership could be automatically revoked, leading both ruling and opposition parties to label this move as a 'shielded election' or a 'political comeback for restoring honor.' Even the Democratic Party of Korea drew a line by saying they cannot form an electoral alliance, prompting Cho to declare an independent path, stating, "I will go my own way" (after paying respects at the National 5·18 Democratic Cemetery in Gwangju on the 14th).

Cho Kuk joins via semi-proportional representation, Democratic Party draws the line

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is speaking at the Supreme Council meeting held at the National Assembly on the 7th. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

Inside and outside the political sphere, it was anticipated that former Minister Cho Kuk would follow a model of absorption into the Democratic Party by utilizing the 'semi-proportional representation system.' It was expected he would follow the path of the Open Democratic Party, which formed a new party in the last general election and then merged with the Democratic Party.

However, Park Hong-geun, head of the Democratic Party's Democratic Reform Progressive Election Alliance Promotion Team, bluntly stated on Facebook regarding Cho's new party formation, "It is difficult to consider him as an electoral alliance partner for the 22nd general election victory." Park added, "Cho's political participation or independent party formation will not help the people's victory but will only generate unnecessary controversy, conflict, and persistent attacks."

The Democratic Party's distancing from Cho stems from concerns that if the party, which crossed the 'Cho Kuk River' in the last presidential election, allies with him in the general election, it could lose momentum for regime judgment and see moderate votes defect. Above all, under the leadership of party head Lee Jae-myung, the mainstream pro-Lee faction members have no sense of debt or obligation regarding the Cho Kuk incident. In fact, Lee Jae-myung has apologized multiple times for the controversies surrounding children's admission fraud, unfairness, and the Democratic Party's double standards that surfaced during the Cho Kuk incident.

Cho Kuk's political entry itself seen as a negative for the Democratic Party

Former Minister of Justice Cho Kuk, who was sentenced to prison in the first trial on charges including admission fraud involving his children and covering up the Blue House inspection, is leaving the courtroom after the appellate sentencing hearing held at the Seoul High Court in Seocho-dong, Seoul, on the 8th. The court sentenced former Minister Cho to two years in prison. Photo by Jo Yong-jun jun21@

Experts predict that when calculating the pros and cons for the general election, Cho Kuk's political entry itself will be a negative for the Democratic Party. From the perspective of most voters, excluding highly politically engaged groups, Cho is a figure reminiscent of the Democratic Party. Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University said, "Cho being at the center of issues will dilute the Democratic Party's regime judgment narrative and remind voters of the Moon Jae-in administration's failures."

Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon also said, "There is a possibility that individuals at risk of losing nominations due to factional conflicts within the Democratic Party may move to Cho Kuk's new party," adding, "The Reform New Party is also expected to take votes from the Democratic Party, and if Cho's new party also enters, it could be disadvantageous for the Democratic Party." Professor Choi Chang-ryeol of Yongin University stated, "Since both the first and second trials resulted in prison sentences, pushing forward with political entry is a reckless move," and "The likelihood of winning the general election with a meaningful vote share is low."

How long will Cho Kuk's manpower last... The founding convention is a turning point

Some raise doubts about whether Cho Kuk's fandom, many of whom dispersed to Lee Jae-myung's fandom (Gaeddal) after the last presidential election, can meet the requirements for establishing a political party. According to the Political Parties Act, to form a new party, the requirements specified in Articles 17 and 18 must be met, including having 'at least five city/provincial party branches nationwide and over 1,000 members in each branch.'

Even if Cho Kuk's new party completes the general election independently, it is expected to struggle to achieve meaningful results. Many prominent political figures have already moved to third-party new parties, making it uncertain whether anyone will join Cho's party. There is skepticism that Cho's personal 'manpower' alone will not secure competitiveness against other parties.

On the other hand, there is a counterargument that the strong support base that rallied under the 'Protect Cho Kuk' banner, mainly centered around the Democratic Party, is thick enough to meet the party establishment requirements. This commentator said, "The founding convention will allow us to gauge Cho's actual support base, party membership size, and the scale of his fandom."

In 2019, participants at the '9th Candlelight Cultural Festival for Prosecutorial Reform to Eradicate Judicial Corruption' are holding candles and shouting slogans to protect Minister Cho Kuk (Source=Yonhap News).

Cho Kuk's new party must secure at least 3% of the total valid votes nationwide in the proportional representation election to gain even one seat. In the 21st general election, the People's Party secured 6.79% of the proportional representation vote, and the Open Democratic Party secured 5.42%, each winning three proportional seats. Political commentator Park Sang-byeong said, "Voters have a strong psychology to avoid wasted votes," adding, "If there is strong anger over President Yoon's mismanagement, voters will choose the Democratic Party rather than moving toward Cho Kuk's new party, but this remains to be seen."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.