[2024 US Election] Trump Leads Biden in Polls... Key Issue is 'Judicial Risk'

Trump 47% VS Biden 42%
Biden Leads by 2%P if Trump Found Guilty

In the upcoming U.S. presidential election this November, a showdown between incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is highly anticipated, with Trump reportedly widening his lead over Biden in the polls. However, if Trump is convicted, Biden appears to hold the advantage.

On the 4th (local time), NBC News reported that in a hypothetical Biden vs. Trump head-to-head poll, former President Trump secured 47% support, leading President Biden, who had 42%, by a 5 percentage point margin.

President Joe Biden of the United States (left) and former President Donald Trump

The poll was conducted from October 26 to 30 among 1,000 registered voters. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points.

The gap between President Biden and former President Trump has widened compared to the poll conducted last November. At that time, Trump had 46% support while Biden had 44%, a 2 percentage point difference.

By category, former President Trump led President Biden in areas such as border and immigration control (35 percentage points), mental and physical health necessary for the presidency (23 percentage points), economic policy (22 percentage points), and crime and violence response (21 percentage points). President Biden held an advantage in immigrant rights protection (17 percentage points) and abortion issues (12 percentage points).

According to this poll, the way for President Biden to secure re-election is if former President Trump is convicted. Trump faces judicial risks, having been indicted on charges including incitement of the January 6, 2020, Capitol riot. When respondents were asked to consider a scenario in which Trump is convicted of a felony, Biden and Trump’s support shifted to 45% and 43%, respectively, reversing the lead. Within the margin of error, Biden holds the advantage.

NBC analyzed that there has been significant defection among young voters, Latinx voters, and independents who strongly supported Biden in 2020. Biden’s approval rating was recorded at 37%, the lowest since polling began.

Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic poll expert at Hart Research Associates, described the poll results as "showing a presidency in peril." He said, "The most concerning aspect is the erosion of Biden’s standing compared to Trump four years ago," adding, "There is a loss of belief that Biden is more qualified on his key campaign promises."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.