[Yoon-Han Conflict Watchpoint] ② Is It a Promise Duel Aimed at 'Centrist Expansion'?

Lee Jun-seok "Promise Meeting is a Planned Event" Claim
Low Likelihood of Scripted Flow Such as Reconciliation

In political circles, there is an analysis that the current conflict situation might be a ‘promised sparring’ conducted in coordination. It is suggested that this could be a card to turn the election around by using it as an opportunity for centrist expansion.

Especially among opposition parties, attention is being paid to the background and repercussions of this conflict occurring just before the general election, raising the possibility of it being ‘planned.’ Lee Jun-seok, leader of the Reform New Party, stated through YouTube broadcasts and other channels, "I strongly feel this is promised sparring," and "I believe it was planned from the start." He pointed out the meeting between Chairman Han and Presidential Secretary Lee Kwan-seop, which triggered the controversy, and the process by which the conversation details became known, arguing, "If the president wanted to say something unpleasant to Chairman Han, he could have called or sent a Telegram message directly, so there is no reason to send Secretary Lee Kwan-seop to give orders."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

One reason for viewing this as promised sparring is that the unprecedented conflict could lead to a dramatic scenario depending on how the situation unfolds. Choi Byung-chun, director of the New Growth Research Institute, said, "(If this conflict is) promised sparring, it is an excellent work," and predicted, "If measures such as Kim Geon-hee’s apology are taken, the People Power Party is highly likely to succeed in centrist expansion, and the general election will unfold favorably for the People Power Party."

Within the ruling party, there is also an analysis that how this incident is resolved could turn adversity into opportunity. Ahn Cheol-soo, a People Power Party lawmaker, said, "If this becomes an opportunity to organize the division of roles between the party and the government, I think it could actually be a better opportunity." In political circles, there have been many remarks that Chairman Han must differentiate himself from President Yoon for the ruling party to win the general election.

There is also an analysis that the presidential office and the ruling party are efficiently managing the Kim Geon-hee risk. Geum Tae-seop, leader of New Choice, said, "Actually, the issue was the special prosecutor law (regarding Mrs. Kim)," and added, "As internal conflicts arose, the issue shifted to whether Mrs. Kim should apologize or not regarding the luxury handbag acceptance controversy," and "Now, if she apologizes, they will try to move on as if the problem is resolved. I think they will take steps to moderately patch things up." This means the special prosecutor controversy was replaced by the luxury handbag acceptance controversy.

On the other hand, the ruling party holds the position that this incident cannot be seen as promised sparring. Lee Cheol-gyu, head of the People Power Party’s Talent Recruitment Committee, said in a KBS radio interview regarding the promised sparring controversy raised by Lee Jun-seok and others, "It is just imagination," and "It is the imagination of those who think they can easily stage and deceive, and that the public will be fooled by it."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The actual moves seen from the ruling party also focus on swift resolution rather than dramatic effect. If they had intended to create a stage, they should have aimed for dramatic effect, but the ruling party is focusing on quickly managing the situation as a ‘conflict arising from misunderstanding.’ Additionally, the fact that President Yoon abruptly canceled an event he was expected to attend due to a cold and other reasons, causing significant repercussions, raises suspicions of a prearranged script. If this is a centrist expansion scenario, Chairman Han should ultimately ‘win,’ but there is also suspicion about whether President Yoon, still early in his term, would easily relinquish the balance of power.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.