Despite Military Pressure, China Misses Taiwan Election... What About North Korea?

North Korea Continues Military Provocations Ahead of General Election
China Employs Similar Strategy Before Taiwan Election
Experts Say "North Korea Also Unlikely to Achieve Its Goals"

On the afternoon of the 14th, citizens at the Seoul Station waiting room are watching related reports after North Korea launched an unidentified ballistic missile into the East Sea. [Image source=Yonhap News]

Ahead of the Taiwan presidential election, China continued military provocations around Taiwan to support the election of the 'pro-China' Kuomintang candidate, but ultimately failed. Analysts say the military actions fueled anti-China sentiment, resulting in a backlash. Similarly, as North Korea's April general election approaches, it has escalated provocations by launching ballistic missiles into the East Sea. However, experts predict that North Korea is unlikely to achieve the desired effect.

According to major foreign media and experts on the 15th, China maintained military pressure targeting Taiwan ahead of the presidential election held on the 13th. On the 9th and 11th, during the final stages of the election campaign, military aircraft and warships belonging to the People's Liberation Army were repeatedly sent into Taiwan's surrounding airspace and waters, and on election day, eight military aircraft, including one reconnaissance plane, were deployed to provoke.

This was interpreted as an attempt to amplify Taiwan's security concerns and create a favorable atmosphere for the pro-China Kuomintang candidate Hou Youyi. In fact, China announced the suspension of tariff-free benefits to Taiwan just before the election and continued overt election interference, such as supporting mainland tourism for local government officials. Particularly, there were significant concerns both inside and outside Taiwan that China was engaging in fake news and digital public opinion manipulation through social networking services (SNS).

However, with the victory of the pro-US and pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te in the Taiwan election, China's attempt ultimately failed. Analysts suggested that China's coercive actions backfired. The New York Times (NYT) reported shortly after the election, "China's coercive behavior, economically and through continued military harassment at sea and in the air, has only strengthened Taiwan's desire to break free from China's vast shadow."

Hou You-yi, the presidential candidate of Taiwan's main opposition party, the Kuomintang, is greeting supporters while riding in an election campaign vehicle in New Taipei City on the 4th.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

North Korea is also escalating provocations as its domestic general election approaches in April. Following three consecutive days of artillery fire provocations around the northwestern islands from the 5th to the 7th, it conducted a test launch of a hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile (IRBM) into the East Sea the day before. This appears to be an attempt to create a favorable situation by framing the issue as 'war versus peace,' arguing that the Yoon Suk-yeol administration's hardline stance on North Korea legitimizes North Korea's military buildup.

However, similar to China, there is analysis that North Korea may also face backlash. Jeon Byung-seo, director of the China Economy and Finance Research Institute, explained, "China supported the Kuomintang through military actions akin to a 'North Wind strategy' just before the Taiwan election, but it only fueled anti-China sentiment. The military actions provoked backlash among Taiwanese people, resulting in a loss of support for the Kuomintang."

An official from the Ministry of Unification said, "It appears that North Korea's actions are intended to influence our domestic political situation," and predicted that provocations would continue for the time being. Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, explained, "The likelihood of North Korea conducting limited provocations against South Korea before the general election is relatively low. Doing so would not be advantageous for them; rather, it could work in favor of the current government."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.