'Taiwan Presidential Election in the "US-China Proxy War"... Shaking Global Security and Economic Landscape'

Pro-American Lai Ching-te and Pro-China Hou You-yi in a 'Narrow' Contest
Attention on Impact on Korean Peninsula Security and Semiconductor Industry

The Taiwanese presidential election, regarded as a 'proxy war between the US and China,' will be held on the 13th. This election is the first major national election to take place globally this year, which is called the 'year of elections.' The outcome is expected to have a significant impact on global security and the economy.

On the 12th, at the Banciao Stadium in New Taipei City, Taiwan, the final campaign rally on the eve of the election for Lai Ching-te, the presidential candidate of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Photo by Yonhap News Agency

The Taiwanese presidential election, held from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. local time, will elect the president and vice president as well as 113 legislators (members of parliament).

This combined presidential and legislative election involves about 19.55 million eligible voters aged 20 and over out of Taiwan's total population of approximately 24 million. Since Taiwan's transition from Kuomintang dictatorship, this is the eighth direct presidential election by the citizens since 1996. Taiwanese people have alternated between the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Kuomintang (KMT) governments every eight years since 2000. Whether this 'pattern' will be broken this time is a key point to watch.

According to polls released until the day before the ban on publishing opinion polls (3 days prior), the election is a close race within the margin of error between Lai Ching-te, the pro-independence and pro-US ruling DPP candidate, and Hou You-yi, the pro-China candidate from the main opposition KMT.

Experts see the votes of the 20s and 30s age groups, which make up more than 30% of all voters, as the most important variable. The local 20- and 30-year-olds prioritize practical issues such as employment and housing prices over traditional security issues like 'war or peace.' The candidate who best addresses their concerns is considered to be Ko Wen-je of the centrist Taiwan People's Party, who emphasizes livelihood issues.

In particular, this election has attracted international attention because the victory of either the pro-US or pro-China candidate will inevitably have a major impact on cross-strait (China-Taiwan) relations, US-China relations, and further, the global security and economic landscape.

China has refused dialogue with the DPP government led by Tsai Ing-wen over the past eight years and has openly expressed dissatisfaction with the DPP by conducting military demonstrations almost daily around Taiwan in recent years. As the presidential election approaches, China has also increased economic pressure on Taiwan.

While the United States maintains a stance of non-interference in Taiwan's election, it is clear that it hopes for the victory of the pro-US candidate Lai to counter China.

Therefore, if the pro-US Lai candidate wins, cross-strait tensions are expected to escalate further. The pro-US administration could extend its rule from 8 to 12 years, increasing US influence over the Taiwan Strait, which China considers its 'front yard,' thereby intensifying US-China conflicts.

Conversely, if the pro-China Hou candidate wins, Taiwan would move closer to China, effectively turning the strategically important Taiwan Strait into a Chinese coastal area. In this case, the US Indo-Pacific strategy to block China's advance into the western Pacific through the first island chain (Okinawa-Taiwan-Philippines-Malacca Strait) could face serious setbacks.

Economically, Taiwan is located in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, some of the busiest seas in the world, and is home to TSMC, the world's largest foundry (semiconductor contract manufacturing) company, making it a key part of the global semiconductor supply chain.

Therefore, if the Taiwanese government changes, it is pointed out that it could affect the global supply chain in some way.

South Korea could also be directly or indirectly affected by the Taiwan election. If the DPP wins, the wave of US-China conflict could rise, putting pressure on South Korea to take a clearer stance on the Taiwan issue, which could become a source of instability in South Korea-China relations. Economically, since the pro-China KMT is somewhat negative about TSMC's overseas investments, some analysts suggest that if the KMT takes power, South Korean semiconductor companies like Samsung Electronics could gain a windfall benefit.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.