Taiwan Presidential Election D-1... International Situation to Change Rapidly Depending on Results

'The US-China Proxy War'... Impact on the Semiconductor Supply Chain

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 12th, one day before the Taiwan presidential election, each party is expected to launch a final all-out effort.

In Taiwan, the presidential election to choose the top leader and the legislative election to elect 113 legislators (members of the National Assembly) will be held simultaneously on the 13th. This is the eighth time since 1996 that citizens in Taiwan, which experienced Kuomintang dictatorship in the past, directly elect the president.

According to the results up to the day before the ban on publishing opinion polls (3 days prior), this presidential election is a close race within the margin of error between Lai Ching-te, the candidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) with an independence and pro-US stance, and Hou You-yi, the candidate of the pro-China main opposition Kuomintang (KMT).

On the evening of the day, candidate Lai and candidate Hou will hold their final rallies side by side in New Taipei City near the capital Taipei, while the third candidate, Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People's Party, will hold his final rally on the street in front of the Presidential Office in Taipei.

Amid rising geopolitical tensions, the structure highlighting the backing of the United States and China behind each party has emerged, leading this Taiwan presidential election to be perceived as a 'US-China proxy war.'

China has openly warned that if candidate Lai wins, the Taiwan Strait crisis will escalate further and has conducted military demonstrations aimed at Taiwan.

The United States maintains a position of non-interference in Taiwan's election but has effectively supported the DPP by strengthening arms support to Taiwan.

If DPP candidate Lai wins and succeeds in maintaining power for 12 consecutive years, China’s military and economic pressure on Taiwan is expected to intensify further.

Conversely, if the Kuomintang succeeds in a regime change, the US influence, which has been checking China through Taiwan, is likely to diminish. The US Indo-Pacific strategy to block China’s advance into the Western Pacific via the first island chain (Okinawa-Taiwan-Philippines-Malacca Strait) could face serious setbacks.

Additionally, Taiwan is home to TSMC, the world’s largest foundry (semiconductor contract manufacturing) company, drawing attention to whether the global semiconductor supply chain will be reorganized.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.