Hailey, Will She Create an Upset in New Hampshire?

Anti-Trump Candidate Withdrawal Causes Stir
Combined Support Could Surpass Trump
Focus on Possible Last-Minute Turnaround

In the U.S. Republican presidential primary, the sudden withdrawal of former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who had been at the forefront of the anti-Trump faction, is drawing attention to the potential impact on the Republican race. A scenario has emerged in which former Ambassador Nikki Haley could defeat former President Donald Trump, the leading Republican candidate, in New Hampshire, where the first primary will be held.

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However, even if such a scenario materializes, some analysts believe it would still be insufficient to overturn former President Trump's overwhelming lead in the Republican primary.

According to a poll by the congressional news outlet The Hill as of the 11th (local time), former President Trump holds 41.5% support in New Hampshire, former Ambassador Haley 30.5%, former Governor Christie 11.5%, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis 6.8%.

When combining the support for Haley and Christie, it totals 42%, slightly surpassing former President Trump's 41.5%. However, since Haley does not directly confront Trump during her campaign, some votes may drift away. According to a poll released on the 9th by CNN and the University of New Hampshire, only 65% of Christie supporters indicated Haley as their next choice.

The New York Times (NYT) reported that "Christie's votes alone are not enough," but also noted that "Haley has been steadily rising in the polls, and there are many historical precedents where candidates with a surge in support continued to gain momentum right before the primaries."

However, the potential withdrawal of pro-Trump figures such as Governor DeSantis and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy poses a variable for Haley. Although they have not expressed intentions to withdraw, it is analyzed that if they perform poorly in the first Republican contest, the Iowa caucuses, they might consider withdrawing to consolidate support.

Even if Haley wins in New Hampshire, the general consensus is that it will be difficult to change Trump's overwhelming lead. Trump enjoys over 60% support nationwide, leading Haley by more than 50 percentage points. In South Carolina, considered Haley's next battleground after New Hampshire, Trump leads by 30 percentage points. If Haley loses the South Carolina primary next month, her campaign momentum is expected to weaken significantly.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.