"If Private Education Expenses Increase by 10,000 Won, Birth Rate Decreases by 0.012"

Hankyung Association Analyzes 'Impact of Private Education Expenses on Low Birthrate'
Approximately 26% of Total Fertility Rate Decline from 2015 to 2022 Attributed to Rising Private Education Costs

It has been claimed that about 26% of the decline in birth rates is attributed to the increase in private education expenses.

The Korea Economic Association (hereinafter KEA) revealed this in a report titled "The Impact of Private Education Expenses on Low Birth Rates," arguing that to alleviate low birth rates, it is necessary to improve the quality of public education and normalize public education to reduce the burden of private education expenses.

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The report cited data from Statistics Korea, pointing out that last year, the total amount of private education expenses reached 26 trillion won, marking an all-time high, while the total fertility rate during the same period hit a record low of 0.78.

In particular, in Seoul, the average monthly private education expense per participating student was 707,000 won, the highest nationwide, while the total fertility rate was 0.59, the lowest in the country. In contrast, in Jeonnam, the average monthly private education expense per participating student was 387,000 won, the lowest level, and the total fertility rate was 0.97, the second highest after Sejong City (total fertility rate 1.12).

Assuming other factors remain constant, it was also found that if the average monthly real private education expense increases by 10,000 won, the total fertility rate decreases by about 0.012. Furthermore, based on the analysis results, it was estimated that about 26% of the decline in birth rates is due to the increase in private education expenses. South Korea's total fertility rate has been continuously declining since 2015, with a decrease of 0.461 between 2015 and 2022.

Meanwhile, during the same period, the real private education expenses affecting changes in the total fertility rate increased by about 99,730 won. According to the empirical analysis, the decrease in the fertility rate caused by the increase in private education expenses was estimated to be about 0.120, which accounts for approximately 26.0% of the total fertility rate decrease of 0.461.

KEA pointed out that to alleviate the burden of private education expenses, which negatively affect the birth rate, it is an important task to strengthen and normalize the role of public education and reduce dependence on private education. To this end, they argued that it is necessary to avoid the downward leveling of education and guarantee the diversity and autonomy of schools.

Yoo Jin-seong, a senior research fellow at KEA, said, "The direction of education we should pursue in the global environment is not the quantitative expansion of uniform education of the past, but qualitative improvement based on autonomy and diversity," adding, "It is necessary to recognize the diversity of schools in public education and expand the autonomy of individual schools even in general high schools to satisfy educational demanders and block the demand for private education."

Along with this, KEA pointed out that most of the demand for private education arises to fill gaps in school classes and to improve academic achievement, emphasizing the need to establish a customized public education system that can support this. KEA stated, "Since the role of teachers is important in public education, it is necessary to explore ways to improve the teacher competency development evaluation to strengthen teacher professionalism," and emphasized, "It is necessary to continuously discover and promote policy tasks that can reduce dependence on private education in the future."

Meanwhile, this report estimated the impact of private education expenses on birth rates using a dynamic panel model based on panel data from 17 metropolitan cities and provinces.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.