[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea's Next Provocation Card After ICBM

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula After Declaration to Terminate Inter-Korean Military Agreement
New Medium-Range Ballistic Missile Possible Following SLBM Development

Since North Korea declared the termination of the September 19 Inter-Korean Military Agreement, it has been raising the level of military tension on the Korean Peninsula. Following the launch of a military reconnaissance satellite, it fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), leading analysts to believe that it is highly likely to also launch submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) or new intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM).

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The ICBM launched around 8:24 a.m. on the 18th from the Pyongyang area toward the East Sea came just over a month after successfully placing a reconnaissance satellite into orbit. According to military authorities' analysis, the ICBM's flight distance was 1,000 km. The missile was observed to have been launched at a higher angle than normal (30?45 degrees), flying for about 70 minutes, with a maximum altitude likely exceeding 6,000 km. Considering the launch angle and flight distance, it is estimated to be the 'Hwasong-18' tested on July 12.

This marks North Korea's fifth ICBM launch following those in February (Hwasong-15), March (Hwasong-17), April (Hwasong-18), and July (Hwasong-18). This is the first time North Korea has launched five ICBMs in a single year. By firing what is presumed to be the Hwasong-18 again after April and July, it is likely verifying the performance of a solid-fuel ICBM capable of rapid and surprise launches, increasing the possibility of operational deployment starting next year.

Experts analyze that an ICBM launched at a high angle reaching over 6,000 km altitude could fly 12,000 to 15,000 km if launched at a normal angle, enabling it to strike the entire U.S. mainland. Although it is unclear whether North Korea has atmospheric reentry technology, the operational deployment of a new solid-fuel ICBM would signify possessing the capability to strike the U.S.

Estimated as 'Hwasong-18' Considering Altitude and Flight Distance

If the reconnaissance satellite successfully placed into orbit on the third attempt last month is considered the 'eye,' then the ICBM corresponds to the 'fist.' Although there are doubts about the reconnaissance satellite's performance, concerns have been raised that the 'eye and fist' together could enhance attack capabilities. North Korea claims that the reconnaissance satellite has photographed major bases in South Korea, Japan, and U.S. mainland military bases and has begun normal operations this month.

Furthermore, after South Korea suspended the effect of some provisions of the September 19 Inter-Korean Military Agreement in response to last month's reconnaissance satellite launch, North Korea promptly declared that it would no longer be bound by the military agreement and would immediately restore all military measures that had been suspended on land, sea, and air. This was effectively interpreted as a declaration of termination of the military agreement.

North Korea's next move could involve SLBMs or IRBMs. Since the 8th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea in January 2021, North Korea has been committed to completing the 'five core tasks' of its five-year defense development plan. In September, it launched its first tactical nuclear attack submarine, the 'Kim Gun-ok Hero Ship' (No. 841), and following the successful reconnaissance satellite launch, it claimed to have succeeded in testing a solid-fuel engine for a new IRBM in November.

Analysts suggest that North Korea's escalation of military tension toward the end of the year aims to highlight the completion of key defense tasks as an 'achievement' of Chairman Kim Jong-un, thereby seeking to consolidate the regime.

Possibility of Additional Provocations to Highlight Kim Jong-un’s Achievements at Year-End

Additionally, the move appears to be a strong reaction to the agreement reached at the 2nd Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) meeting held on the 15th (local time) in Washington, D.C. At this meeting, South Korea and the U.S. set June next year as the target date to complete the establishment of an extended deterrence system and decided to apply a new 'Operational Plan 2022 (OPLAN)' for the first time starting with the joint U.S.-South Korea exercise 'Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS)' in August next year. The current U.S.-South Korea Combined Forces Command operational plan (OPLAN 5015) includes nuclear retaliation only in the event of full-scale war.

Earlier, Kim Tae-hyo of the National Security Office said after the NCG meeting, "Next year's Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise and other joint U.S.-South Korea exercises will include nuclear operation scenarios for joint training," adding, "Even if a nuclear war occurs, U.S. nuclear weapons, South Korea's non-nuclear weapons, and strategic assets will operate together to protect each other."

This ICBM launch can also be interpreted as dissatisfaction with the imminent implementation of real-time sharing of North Korean missile warning information among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan. The Workers' Party newspaper Rodong Sinmun expressed caution on the 14th, calling the trilateral missile warning information sharing a "reckless military provocation."

A military official stated, "North Korea's recent declaration of terminating the military agreement and multiple missile provocations, including ICBM launches, appear to be aimed at consolidating the regime and promoting internal achievements," adding, "It also strongly reflects North Korea's opposition to the U.S.-South Korea's enhanced extended deterrence measures to suppress its nuclear and missile threats."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.