Next Year's Subscription Market Depends on 'Interest Rates'

Sale Prices and Government Policies as Key Variables
Preference for Subscription as a Home Buying Method

A survey revealed that the key variable influencing next year's subscription market is 'interest rates.' Additionally, as new apartment subscriptions concentrate in the Seoul and Gyeonggi metropolitan areas, regional polarization is expected to continue.

According to the survey on the '2024 Subscription Market' jointly conducted by Udaebbang Real Estate Research Institute and Woryong Subscription Research Institute on the 3rd, when asked about the 'most important variable to consider in the 2024 subscription market,' 33.2% of respondents chose 'interest rates (loan conditions),' the highest proportion. This was followed by 'sale prices' and 'government policies (such as the abolition of the actual residence obligation),' which received 27.3% and 18.5% respectively. The response for 'housing market conditions' was relatively low at 13.9%. The two organizations conducted the survey over five days from the 20th to the 24th of last month, targeting 238 people with five questions.

When asked, 'If you were to prepare your own home in 2024, what method would you consider?' the largest portion, 34%, answered 'subscription to new complexes.' This was followed by 'purchase of newly built apartments' and 'purchase of pre-sale rights' at 16.4% and 15.1%, respectively. The preference for 'purchase of older apartments (12.2%)' or 'purchase of redevelopment/reconstruction apartments (7.1%)' was relatively lower. The proportion of respondents who answered 'wait and see' was also as high as 13.9%. The response for 'pre-subscription in new towns (New:Home)' was only 1.3%.

Regarding the question, 'How do you think the subscription market will perform in 2024?' an overwhelming 65.1% responded that it would be 'similar to this year.' Responses indicating 'it will be a recession' and 'it will be a boom' were 15.5% and 11.3%, respectively, with a slightly higher expectation of a recession. This suggests that the current market atmosphere, where sales results vary depending on reasonable sale prices and location conditions, will continue next year.

When asked about the 'desired region for subscription in 2024,' 68.1% answered 'Seoul,' the highest proportion. This was followed by 'Gyeonggi' at 21.8%. Those with no subscription plans accounted for 7.1%, and those who responded with provinces made up 2.9%. It is expected that the polarization between the metropolitan area and provinces in the subscription market will persist next year.

Meanwhile, regarding the outlook for housing prices next year, the most common response was 'similar to this year' at 54.2%. Those expecting prices to 'rise' accounted for 24.8%, while 14.3% expected prices to 'fall.'

Shim Hyung-seok, head of Udaebbang Real Estate Research Institute, said, “Demand for homeownership in the subscription market is heavily considering interest rates and sale prices,” adding, “Next year, amid an overall unstable housing market, a cautious market trend attempting to 'pick the best' in Seoul and the metropolitan area is expected to continue.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.