[Peace&Chips] 'The AI Semiconductor Golden Age Comes in 4 Years'... Early Next Year Marks the Start of '5th Generation Chip' Supply

Increased Semiconductor Exports Next Year Due to HBM Effect
Next Year's HBM Market Size to Expand by 172%

Latest 5th Generation (HBM3E) Supply Timing Forecast
"HBM4 Era to See Spread of Customized Trends"

"As the artificial intelligence (AI) industry grows, next-generation semiconductors including high-bandwidth memory (HBM) are expected to lead the recovery of IT exports next year." (Korea International Trade Association)

As the semiconductor market gradually shows signs of recovery, positive outlooks for next year's market continue to emerge. Since semiconductors account for a large portion of domestic exports, such optimistic remarks are also being made.

The Trade Association expects the export volume of semiconductor items to increase by 21.9% next year compared to this year. In particular, they explained that the surge in AI demand highlights the role of HBM, a memory product for AI.

Next year, AI server shipments are expected to increase by 38% compared to this year, and the HBM market size is projected to grow by 172%. Since HBM is a high-value-added product, it is expected to significantly help increase sales in the memory industry.

Currently, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and the US-based Micron have developed the latest HBM product, HBM3E. HBM has been released in the order of 1st generation (HBM), 2nd generation (HBM2), 3rd generation (HBM2E), and 4th generation (HBM3), and next year, the 5th generation HBM3E will be actively used in the market.

Since HBM is used in AI servers along with graphics processing units (GPUs), the timing of supply to the GPU industry is important. Market research firm TrendForce predicted in a report last week that the US GPU company Nvidia will decide on HBM3E suppliers by the first quarter of next year.

Recently, there have been forecasts that Nvidia is accelerating the supply timing of HBM3E by shortening the product launch cycle of new GPUs to respond to increasing market demand. Dongwon Kim, a researcher at KB Securities, said, "Nvidia will finalize the HBM3E suppliers in January next year and launch the new product B100 in the second quarter of next year."

In this case, the timing to encounter the 6th generation (HBM4) products is also expected to be brought forward. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have announced plans to introduce HBM4 in 2025. Market research firm Omdia predicts that HBM4 will appear in 2025 and will become the mainstream product in the HBM market by 2027.

With the advent of the HBM4 era, new manufacturing methods are expected to be introduced, highlighting the trend toward customized memory. TrendForce stated, "This movement will bring unique design and pricing strategies within the market," adding, "It signals a production era specialized in HBM technology, breaking away from the existing framework."

Editor's NoteSemiconductors, often called the rice of modern industry. Although it is a term we hear daily, it is hard to explain when asked. Peace & Chips will make the complex concepts and overall flow of the semiconductor industry easy to digest for you. Just place your spoon.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.