Koo Ja-yeol: "Lee Jae-yong, Chung Eui-sun, Koo Kwang-mo Are Doing Well... Need to Find New Growth Engines"

60th Trade Day Press Conference
KITA's Export Outlook for This Year and Next
"Next Year's Exports to Increase by 7.9%... Led by Semiconductors"

Gu Ja-yeol, Chairman of the Korea International Trade Association (KITA), said on the 29th, "I believe that Gu Kwang-mo, Chairman of LG (born in 1978), as well as Lee Jae-yong, Chairman of Samsung Electronics (born in 1968), and Chung Eui-sun, Chairman of Hyundai Motor Group (born in 1970), are growing into excellent entrepreneurs better than I am, and they are indeed doing well."

Chairman Gu made these remarks at a press conference held on the 29th at the Trade Tower in Gangnam-gu, Seoul, to commemorate the '60th Trade Day' (December 5).

He forecasted that trade conditions would not be easy due to variables such as the global economy growing at a low 2% range, economic bloc formation, nationalism, and competition for critical minerals. He emphasized the urgent need to secure new future growth engines for Korea’s export rebound and stressed the active utilization of startups armed with ideas and new technologies.

Chairman Gu mentioned, "It feels like the economic growth engine is somewhat cooling down," and added, "Our companies must be more daring and continuously challenge emerging markets."

When asked at the press conference whether there are new export strategic items that will lead Korea’s growth for the next decade after semiconductors and automobiles, he said, "I am paying attention to bio-health, pharmaceuticals, and the service sector," and added, "We need to restructure from a manufacturing-centered economy to one that can export content and services."

He was also asked to evaluate the importance of young owners participating in management as a means of securing new growth engines beyond industrial restructuring. He responded, "Chairmen Lee Jae-yong, Chung Eui-sun, and Gu Kwang-mo have a younger entrepreneurial spirit than I do and understand the global market better than I do."

However, he added that the capabilities of corporate owners alone are insufficient, so government support is essential. Chairman Gu said, "(Korea) is a country that cannot survive without exports, and now the problem is that the global market and the domestic market are not separate anymore," and expressed his hope that "the government would remove many regulations so that when competing with other countries, we can compete on the same playing field and under the same rules."

Regarding Korea’s failure to host the 2030 Busan World Expo, he said, "Not only the government but also business leaders including SK Chairman Chey Tae-won worked hard to support the bid, but it was insufficient," and added, "I believe Korea’s promotion was done tremendously more than before, and based on this, I have no doubt it will greatly help Korean exports."

Koo Ja-yeol, Chairman of the Korea International Trade Association, speaking at a press conference commemorating the "60th Trade Day (December 5)" on the 29th.
[Photo by Korea International Trade Association]

Meanwhile, KITA released a report on the 'Evaluation of This Year’s Exports and Imports and Outlook for Next Year' on the 30th. The report forecasted that Korea’s exports next year will increase by 7.9% from this year to $680 billion (approximately 877.4 trillion KRW), and imports will increase by 3.3% to $666 billion (approximately 859.3 trillion KRW). The trade balance, calculated by subtracting imports from exports, is expected to achieve a surplus of $14 billion (approximately 18 trillion KRW).

By item, all 13 major Korean export items are expected to turn to an increasing trend. In particular, semiconductor exports are expected to increase by 21.9%. KITA stated, "There will be a significant rebound due to the recovery of memory prices, improvement in supply and demand, and expansion of supply capacity for next-generation semiconductors."

Automobile exports (3%) are also expected to maintain an increasing trend as the share of electric vehicle exports rises. However, since most of the deferred semiconductor supply shortages will be resolved this year, the growth rate is expected to be smaller than this year’s (27.4%).

Imports are expected to increase slightly due to rising energy import prices. Cho Sang-hyun, Director of KITA’s International Trade and Commerce Research Institute, said, "If industrial production and investment recover in various countries next year, the demand for industrial fuel will naturally increase, pushing international oil prices up to $90 per barrel (approximately 116,000 KRW)," and added, "Energy imports will lead the overall increase in imports."

KITA presented the keyword 'TIP (Technology·Interest rate·Policy)' as the key factors for Korea’s trade and commerce environment next year. Technology, interest rates, and policy are expected to determine Korea’s trade balance. Director Cho said, "Whether technology investment demand recovers next year will directly affect Korean exports, and we need to watch when the current high-interest-rate trend will shift to a rate-cutting stance," and added, "Depending on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election at the end of next year, trade and commerce policies could change rapidly."

This year’s exports are estimated to record $630 billion (approximately 812.3 trillion KRW), down 7.8% from last year, and imports are estimated at $645 billion (approximately 831.7 trillion KRW), down 11.8%. The trade balance is expected to record a deficit of $15 billion (approximately 19.3 trillion KRW).

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.