This Winter Will Be Milder Than Average... Impact of El Ni?o and Global Warming

Concerns about the winter cold wave are growing due to frequent subzero temperatures this month, but this winter is expected to be less cold than usual.

According to the Korea Meteorological Administration on the 29th, the morning temperature dropped to -7 degrees Celsius, continuing colder weather than the previous day, and strong winds are forecasted to make the wind chill even lower. The daytime high temperatures in major regions are Seoul 0°C, Incheon 0°C, Gangneung 5°C, Chuncheon 1°C, Daejeon 3°C, Jeonju 2°C, Gwangju 3°C, Daegu 4°C, Busan 7°C, and Jeju 8°C.

On the 28th, after the rain, the temperature dropped significantly, and citizens wearing scarves and thick clothing hurried their steps at Gwanghwamun Intersection in Jongno-gu, Seoul. Photo by Jo Yongjun jun21@

Although subzero cold has been persistent since November, this winter is expected to be relatively less cold than usual. The Korea Meteorological Administration announced that the probability of average temperatures in December this year and February next year being lower than the normal temperature is 20%, while the probability of being similar or higher is 40% each. The average temperature in January next year is also predicted to have a 50% chance of being similar and a 30% chance of being higher than normal. Climate prediction models provided by 11 meteorological agencies and related organizations worldwide, including the United States and the United Kingdom, also indicate a high probability that winter temperatures in Korea will be higher than average.

The reason why this winter's temperatures are expected to be higher than usual is due to 'El Ni?o' (a phenomenon where sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific monitoring area remain higher than normal for several months). When El Ni?o occurs, convection activity in the western Pacific decreases, and through a chain reaction of convection, a high-pressure circulation develops east of Japan, bringing relatively warm southerly winds to Korea. Global warming has also contributed to the temperature rise. The monthly average temperatures in Korea for January and February have increased by 1.4°C and 2.1°C respectively over the past 51 years.

However, the Korea Meteorological Administration notes that ‘extreme cold waves’ caused by cold northerly winds blowing into Korea due to the development of low-pressure circulation influenced by relatively developed 'snow cover' (the proportion of ground covered by snow) in East Asia compared to Eastern Europe may still occasionally occur. Additionally, as El Ni?o develops, moisture inflow from the south is expected to increase precipitation compared to normal. The precipitation this winter is forecasted to have a 40% chance of being similar or higher than normal in December, a 50% chance of being similar in January, and a 30% chance of being higher.

In fact, the first snow fell in most areas of the Seoul metropolitan area on the 17th, showing a trend about two weeks earlier than last year. This year’s first snow in Seoul was 12 days earlier than last year and 3 days earlier than the average. Incheon’s first snow was 12 days earlier than last year and 6 days earlier than average, while Suwon’s was 16 days earlier than last year and 4 days earlier than average.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.