[Global Focus] Biden's 'Diplomatic Missteps' and Trump's 'Judicial Risks'... The Key Issues in the US Presidential Election

Key Points to Watch in the US Presidential Election Next November

As the possibility of a rematch between Democratic President Joe Biden and former Republican President Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election next November increases, key points of interest are emerging. Biden's path to re-election faces challenges due to diplomatic missteps in the Middle East stemming from the Israel-Palestine armed conflict, while various judicial risks surrounding Trump are expected to hamper him throughout the election period. Additionally, the candidates' stances on sharply divided bipartisan issues such as abortion laws are also emerging as core points of contention.

Biden, Israel-Hamas Conflict as a ‘Black Hole’

President Biden is struggling with worsening public opinion due to his pro-Israel policy following the Palestinian militant group Hamas's invasion of Israel. Since Hamas's surprise attack on October 7, Biden has faced criticism for his conciliatory approach to Iran and the failure of U.S. intelligence agencies. The Biden administration has been restructuring its military and diplomatic policies from the Middle East to Asia since early in his term, including the withdrawal from Afghanistan, but the Israel-Palestine crisis has starkly exposed the blind spots of this policy.

Even within the administration, there has been pushback against Biden's self-proclaimed role as a supporter of Israeli forces. On October 14, over 500 employees from more than 40 government agencies, including the White House National Security Council (NSC) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), signed a letter protesting Biden's pro-Israel policy.

On November 3, about 100 employees from the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) submitted a statement claiming that Biden is providing the public with misinformation and that Israel is committing war crimes. The five-page statement strongly criticized Biden for "complicity in genocide" by supporting Israel and pointed out that U.S. support for Israel is being provided without clear red lines.

The U.S. political news outlet Axios described Biden, who has positioned himself as a supporter of Israel, as a "punching bag" under attack both internally and externally, identifying his failed foreign policy as a potential trigger that could determine next year's election. To prevent the conflict from spreading across the Middle East, continued U.S. military involvement is likely, which could lead to a vicious cycle weakening military and diplomatic responses to China.

Foreign Affairs magazine predicted, "U.S. military involvement in the Middle East is likely to continue even after the Israel-Palestine war is resolved," adding, "The Biden administration's efforts to pivot its military and diplomatic strategy toward the Indo-Pacific region to counter China's hegemonic expansion will be significantly weakened, making Taiwan more vulnerable to Chinese aggression."

Trump Faces ‘Judicial Risks’ Throughout Election Period

Former President Trump's most vulnerable point is judicial risk. He is the first former or sitting U.S. president in history to be a defendant in a criminal trial. He faces four indictments with a total of 91 charges, including attempts to overturn the 2020 election results, silencing adult film actors, and leaking White House classified documents. Starting with the trial for incitement of the January 6 Capitol riot on March 4 next year, he will have to attend trials throughout the election period. Since it is unlikely that verdicts will be reached before the election for all four cases, there is speculation that if key evidence revealed during the trials and attacks from competing candidates are not adequately defended, it could significantly impact the election outcome.

However, it is difficult to predict whether judicial risks will lead to voter defection. Although judicial risks initially seemed to corner Trump, interest has waned as the trials have dragged on. In a recent two-person hypothetical matchup poll conducted by Emerson College with 1,475 registered voters nationwide, Biden received 43% and Trump 47%, with Trump leading outside the margin of error. Biden and Trump have shown a close race so far.

Moreover, U.S. courts have ruled that "Trump's participation in the Capitol riot does not bar him from running for president." Therefore, despite various judicial risks surrounding Trump, it is expected to be difficult to prevent his candidacy. Similar lawsuits are ongoing in 28 states, and the recent ruling in Colorado is expected to influence the outcomes of other cases. The British newspaper The Guardian noted, "According to this trend, there is no obstacle to his path to the presidency," adding, "(Despite judicial risks) Trump holds an overwhelming lead in the Republican primaries and leads Biden in presidential polls."

If Trump is convicted during the election period, he will be incarcerated. However, if he appeals, incarceration will be delayed. Foreign media predict that if he is elected while incarceration is postponed, he will become the first president to "self-pardon." The British magazine The Economist noted, "Trump could even run for president from prison," citing that Eugene V. Debs, the 1920 Socialist Party candidate, ran for president from prison and received 3.4% of the vote.

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Ideological Divisions Splitting the U.S. Also a Variable

Politically polarized debates such as abortion rights are also considered key issues that could decide next year's election. On June 24 last year, the conservative-leaning U.S. Supreme Court abruptly overturned the half-century-old Roe v. Wade precedent, which had guaranteed abortion rights up to six months of pregnancy, splitting the U.S. into two camps over abortion choice.

Following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, former President Trump hailed it as a "major victory" for the conservative Supreme Court justices he appointed but did not clearly state his own position on abortion rights. When asked whether he would sign a federal law banning abortion if re-elected, he avoided a direct answer. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) analyzed that the Republican Party's unexpected poor performance in the November midterm elections was partly due to Trump's ambiguous stance on abortion.

With the Democratic Party achieving sweeping victories in two battleground states' referendums and state legislature elections where abortion rights were at issue, there is even speculation that this election could be a referendum on abortion rights against the Republican Party. On November 7, in Virginia, a key battleground state, Democrats swept both the state House and Senate elections, and on the same day, Ohio voters approved a referendum by 56% majority to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution. The Virginia election, held between the presidential and federal midterm elections, serves as a barometer of public sentiment.

Support for abortion rights has also surged to historic highs. In a recent poll conducted by the Wall Street Journal and the University of Chicago's Center for Public Affairs Research with 1,163 voters (from October 19 to 24), 55% of respondents said "abortion should be legal for any reason." WSJ noted that support for abortion rights is approaching its highest level since the 1970s.

One foreign media outlet predicted, "The Democratic Party, which has supported abortion rights, will take the lead by making abortion rights a key issue in next year's presidential election following the midterms." In the November midterms last year, the Democratic Party's ability to maintain the Senate majority, defying expectations of a "red wave," was largely attributed to mobilizing support through the abortion issue.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.