[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Success Conditions to Consider for North Korea's Reconnaissance Satellite

South Korea and the U.S. Cautious in Judging Success... Need to Confirm Ground Communication Status

It is expected to take some time to determine the success of North Korea's military reconnaissance satellite No. 1. Although North Korea announced that the launch of the military reconnaissance satellite No. 1, 'Manlilkyung-1,' launched on the night of the 21st, was successful, South Korean and U.S. authorities have not disclosed whether it was successful.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) usually releases related information within hours when a new object enters space, but as of 9:30 a.m., no information about North Korea's reconnaissance satellite has been posted. Even if the satellite enters the scheduled orbit, it is necessary to confirm that signal transmission and reception with ground stations are functioning normally and that photos and videos taken of the ground are being transmitted. During this process, failures such as solar panel deployment failure or ground control station orientation failure may occur.

There is also doubt about whether Manlilkyung-1 will be effective as a reconnaissance satellite. Even if North Korea successfully captures images, it is unlikely to disclose them due to concerns about exposing its technological level. North Korea has previously launched satellites twice into orbit: Kwangmyongsong-3 Unit 2 in December 2012 and Kwangmyongsong-4 in February 2016, but none have been confirmed to operate normally.

At the time of the first launch failure (May 31), the resolution of North Korea's Manlilkyung-1, recovered by the military, was at the level of several meters, which is of minimal military utility. For North Korea to accurately identify the locations of our military's key facilities and bases, it must have high resolution. Our military reconnaissance satellites have a resolution of about 30 cm, and U.S. reconnaissance satellites have a resolution of about 10 cm.

Russia may coordinate with North Korea regarding the transfer of military reconnaissance satellite resolution technology. If North Korea receives Russia's sub-meter resolution technology (capable of identifying objects smaller than 1 meter in width and length), it could launch successive reconnaissance satellites.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.