[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea Satellite Launch Likely in Early Morning of 22nd

Ministry of National Defense "Considering launch times during 1st and 2nd rounds... Possibility of launch"

The Ministry of National Defense is closely monitoring the possibility that North Korea's third military reconnaissance satellite launch may be carried out in the early dawn hours of the 22nd.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

At a regular briefing on the 21st, Jeon Ha-gyu, spokesperson for the Ministry of National Defense, responded to questions about the timing of North Korea's third military reconnaissance satellite launch by saying, "For the first and second launches, the launch occurred on the first day of the notification period, more specifically in the early dawn," adding, "We are considering that possibility and also need to take weather conditions into account."

On the same day, North Korea notified the Japanese government that it would launch a satellite between the 22nd and the 1st of next month. North Korea has informed the Japanese government that it plans to launch a satellite between the 22nd and the 1st of next month, and it has typically launched early in the notification period.

On May 29, North Korea notified the Worldwide Navigational Warning Service (WWNWS) of a launch window from May 31 to June 11, and two days later, at 6:29 a.m. on the 31st, conducted the first launch. On August 22, it announced a launch window from August 24 to 31 and carried out the second launch at 3:50 a.m. on the 24th, two days later. Both the first and second launches followed a pattern of notifying with about two days' notice and launching on the first day of the notification period.

However, considering weather conditions, there is a forecast that the most likely date is the 23rd, two days after the notification. Sin?iju, North Korea, near the West Sea Satellite Launching Station in Dongchang-ri, Pyonganbuk-do, where the satellite is launched, is expected to be cloudy throughout the morning of the 22nd with a maximum precipitation probability of 60%.

On the 23rd, conditions are expected to be favorable, with clear skies and 0% chance of precipitation until 6 a.m., and a 20-30% chance of precipitation between 7 and 9 a.m. However, on the 24th, morning temperatures are expected to drop to minus 7 degrees Celsius, and this cold spell will continue until the 25th.

Lee Chun-geun, honorary research fellow at the Science Policy Institute, said that in cold weather, there could be problems with the propellant freezing, adding, "Although some insulation will be provided, it would be better for North Korea to avoid the 24th and 25th."

North Korea may also choose a day with strong currents to avoid the situation where fallen engines and other debris are recovered by South Korea. However, in that case, they would have to wait until early next week when the water currents near ?ch'?ngdo become faster, which does not align with North Korea's past pattern of rapid launches.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Unification stated that it will respond through trilateral cooperation among South Korea, the United States, and Japan and take necessary follow-up measures regarding North Korea's formalization of the third military reconnaissance satellite launch.

A Ministry of Unification official said regarding North Korea's notification of the satellite launch plan, "North Korea's so-called military reconnaissance satellite launch is a clear illegal act violating the United Nations Security Council resolutions that prohibit all missile launches using ballistic missile technology, and it is a provocative act that seriously threatens not only our security but also regional security," adding, "We strongly urge an immediate halt once again."

Earlier, during North Korea's attempt to launch a military reconnaissance satellite in May, the Ministry of Unification mentioned 'South Korea-U.S. cooperation,' but since the second launch following the agreement among the South Korea-U.S.-Japan leaders at Camp David in August, the expression has been changed to 'South Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation.'

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.