"Will China's Economy Surpass the US?" Ahead of the Summit... Experts Divided

Ahead of the US-China summit, experts are sharply divided on whether the Chinese economy can ultimately surpass that of the United States. US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, who are engaged in an overt hegemonic competition, are scheduled for their second face-to-face meeting on the 15th (local time).

According to Foreign Affairs on the 13th, when experts from various countries were asked, "Will the Chinese economy ultimately surpass the United States in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)?", 15 out of 35 respondents answered positively. Meanwhile, 13 viewed it negatively. Seven experts gave neutral responses.

Most experts in this survey diagnosed that China's economic growth itself is slowing down. However, regarding the possibility of China overcoming institutional uncertainties and surpassing the US under these circumstances, contrasting forecasts were presented.

Andrew Nathan, a professor at Columbia University who expressed the strongest positive stance, stated, "Unless China succeeds in dramatic reforms, economic growth itself will slow down," but added, "However, because the economic scale itself is enormous, China will ultimately surpass the US in terms of GDP." Mary Lovely, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute, said, "Despite China's currently sluggish economic growth, China will surpass the US in terms of scale," but added, "However, it is unclear whether China will surpass the US in per capita GDP in the relatively near future."

Xiaoda Wang, a professor at the University of Chicago, pointed out, "It is true that the Chinese economy faces many challenges, but it still has sufficient potential," adding, "For at least the next several decades, China will maintain abundant supply chains and a population four times larger than that of the US, and unless a 'hot war' breaks out between the US and China, it is hard to imagine China not surpassing the US in economic scale." Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard Kennedy School, analyzed, "China may temporarily surpass the US economy at a certain point, but when population growth declines, it is possible that the US will regain the lead."

On the other hand, Eswar Prasad, a professor at Cornell University, predicted, "China will continue to grow, but at a slower pace than the past 30 years." He said, "Institutional vulnerabilities due to the absence of the rule of law and democracy will limit the long-term appreciation of the yuan against the dollar, which will ultimately make it difficult for China's nominal GDP to catch up with the US." George Magnus, a professor at Oxford University, stated, "Even if China surpasses the US GDP, it will be merely a point of pride, and per capita GDP will not surpass the US for the time being," adding, "A more urgent issue is how the Chinese Communist Party under Xi Jinping will manage negative outlooks if institutional reforms are off the table."

Haemin Ji, a professor at West Point (US Military Academy), noted, "Even though China has achieved remarkable economic growth since the 1980s, it currently faces demographic and social challenges," pointing out, "Issues such as aging, lack of a healthcare system, weak rule of law, and educational inequality will be obstacles to China's ambitions." Mohammad El-Erian, a professor at Cambridge University, also negatively assessed China's possibility of overtaking the US economy, stating, "At a time when the global economy has shifted from tailwinds to headwinds for China, China will need to greatly accelerate reforms, including fundamentally improving its growth model, to surpass the US economy."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.