One Year Before the Presidential Election, Trump Achieves a Sweeping Victory Over Biden in Key Battleground States

NYT Poll: Victory in 5 of 6 Battleground States

In six key battleground states that will determine the outcome of the U.S. presidential election one year from now, former President Donald Trump is leading incumbent President Joe Biden in most of them. Analysts attribute this to traditional support bases such as young people and people of color turning away due to controversies over age and economic issues like high interest rates.

On the 5th (local time), The New York Times (NYT), together with Siena College, conducted a survey from the 22nd of last month to the 3rd of this month targeting 3,662 registered voters in six states. In a head-to-head matchup between former President Trump and President Biden, 48% of respondents chose Trump, ahead of Biden’s 44%.

By region, former President Trump led President Biden in five states: Nevada (52% to 41%), Georgia (49% to 43%), Arizona (49% to 44%), Michigan (48% to 43%), and Pennsylvania (48% to 44%).

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

President Biden only narrowly led former President Trump in Wisconsin, with 47% to 45%. If this battleground state trend continues until the election, NYT’s analysis suggests that former President Trump could secure 300 electoral votes, well above the 270 needed to win.

President Biden received worse evaluations than former President Trump in all areas including the economy and foreign affairs. When asked, "Regardless of support, whose economic policy is more trustworthy between the two candidates?" 59% of voters in the six battleground states chose former President Trump. Only 37% chose President Biden.

Regarding the war between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which has become the biggest foreign policy issue, 50% of voters said former President Trump would handle the problem better. Only 39% chose President Biden.

The issue of President Biden’s age, at 80 years old, was reaffirmed as the biggest obstacle. An overwhelming 71% of voters agreed with the statement, "He is too old to properly perform the duties of president."

NYT also noted that in this poll, President Biden only led in Wisconsin, which has the highest proportion of white voters among the six battleground states.

Although President Biden expects support from people of color, including Black voters who contributed significantly to his 2020 election victory, the reality is that even these groups are turning away from him.

[Image source=UPI Yonhap News]

Meanwhile, a CBS poll conducted from the 30th of last month to the 1st of this month with 2,636 respondents, released on the same day, showed that in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, former President Trump (51%) had 3 percentage points more support than President Biden (48%) (margin of error ±3.3 percentage points).

CBS said, "The 3-point lead is somewhat higher than in September," adding, "If this result holds in next year’s election, it could be interpreted as former President Trump being able to secure electoral votes steadily and win."

When asked about their feelings toward a rematch between President Biden and former President Trump next year, Biden supporters mostly responded with "nervous" (74%) and "frustrated" (72%). In contrast, Trump supporters mainly answered "hopeful" (64%) and "encouraged" (62%).

Regarding the key variable of the U.S. election, the economy, only 18% believed that household finances would improve if President Biden is re-elected. In contrast, 45% believed this under former President Trump.

Regarding foreign policy, 49% of respondents said that if President Biden wins, the likelihood of the U.S. being in a state of war would increase. Meanwhile, only 39% said the likelihood would increase if former President Trump wins.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.