[2023 National Audit] "Weather Forecast Wrong Again" Meteorological Agency's Forecast Credibility Hits Rock Bottom

At the National Assembly Environment and Labor Committee's audit of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) on the 16th, there were consecutive calls for improving the reliability of forecasts in response to climate change.

Lee Ju-hwan, a member of the People Power Party, raised concerns about false information circulating on social networking services (SNS) this summer claiming that "it rained every day in July except for three days," and asked the KMA for countermeasures. The information was based on forecasts provided by Microsoft on its website, but it was essentially an average of past data, making it difficult to consider it a typical weather forecast. In response, Yoo Hee-dong, head of the KMA, said, "To issue forecasts, one must be registered as a forecast provider, so the KMA has the authority to manage forecasts," adding, "However, the current definition of what constitutes a forecast is not clear."

Yoon Gun-young, a member of the Democratic Party, questioned the appropriateness of the ultra-short-term forecasts (local forecasts) that divide the country into 3,500 districts (eup, myeon, dong) and provide forecasts every hour for three days. He pointed out that while Japan issues short-term forecasts by 'current' and 'date' units, the KMA issues forecasts at a level that is "difficult to match" compared to other countries, which leads to a decline in forecast reliability. Commissioner Yoo stated, "Local forecasts were implemented after public awareness and survey research in 2008," and pledged to continue efforts to improve forecast accuracy.

Lee Ju-hwan also called for an increase in the number and strengthening of roles of disaster meteorological support officers who assist local governments in responding to meteorological disasters. He noted that Japan deployed 193 'Meteorological Disaster Prevention Officers' nationwide following the major floods and landslides in Kyushu in 2020, whereas South Korea has only 11 disaster meteorological support officers. Lee Hak-young, also from the Democratic Party, echoed Lee Ju-hwan’s call for increasing the number and expanding the roles of these officers. Yoo responded, "Currently, disaster meteorological support officers are selected from the private sector, but we will consider changing to a system where KMA civil servants are directly dispatched to local governments, as in Japan."

Kim Young-jin of the Democratic Party pointed out technical errors that occurred when the KMA sent the 'Extreme Heavy Rain Emergency Disaster Text Message' for the first time this summer, as well as differences between the KMA’s extreme heavy rain criteria (50 mm in 1 hour and 90 mm in 3 hours simultaneously observed) and Seoul’s criteria (55 mm in 1 hour). Yoo said the technical errors related to the emergency text messages were immediately resolved but acknowledged the difference in criteria as "the most regrettable part," adding, "Having the same standard is fundamental for disaster prevention, and we will coordinate with Seoul to adjust it."

The discovery of malware in the operating system (Windows XP) of Chinese-made vertical wind observation equipment, introduced by the KMA since 2017, was also raised during the audit. Yoo stated, "The KMA has a five-level security system, so information was not leaked externally due to the malware," and added, "We are conducting a full inspection of all Chinese-made equipment nationwide in cooperation with intelligence agencies." Regarding the introduction of two more units of the infected equipment this year, Yoo said, "It is difficult to cancel the contract as it was signed before the malware was discovered," and added, "We will work with relevant authorities to register the supplier as a debarred company to restrict further deliveries."

Additionally, the audit highlighted concerns over the KMA’s research and development (R&D) budget for next year, which was drastically cut to 100.9 billion won from this year’s 122.3 billion won. It was pointed out that the budget decreased despite the need to increase research amid the climate crisis. Yoo explained, "We will do our best to adjust and align within the given circumstances," and noted that some newly secured funds are also included.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.