[Insight & Opinion] Complex Middle East Dynamics... Rising Uncertainty in the Israel-Palestine War

Saudi-Israel Normalization Collapses
Hezbollah and Iran's Involvement Could Escalate the Crisis
Prolonged Conflict May Damage Israel's Economy

On the 7th, the Palestinian armed group Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel. Israel retaliated and announced on the 9th that it had surrounded the Gaza Strip. There have already been significant casualties on both the Israeli and Palestinian sides. As the long-standing Israel-Palestine issue flares up again, the situation in the Middle East has become highly uncertain.

The first immediate impact of this situation was on the Saudi-Israel normalization efforts, which had been progressing under U.S. support. These efforts have effectively stalled. Saudi Arabia had been negotiating normalization with Israel in exchange for security cooperation and civilian nuclear program support from the U.S. Of course, the Palestinian issue could not be ignored. Therefore, Saudi Arabia supported the so-called "two-state solution," envisioning Israel and Palestine coexisting as separate states based on the pre-1967 borders, and attempted to persuade Hamas, which was opposed to this, but Hamas’s recent attack ultimately dashed these efforts. Some analysts believe Hamas launched this attack to obstruct the Saudi-Israel normalization process. If Saudi Arabia, home to Islam’s holy sites, normalized relations with Israel, it would have had significant symbolic meaning. However, as sympathy for Palestine grew among Arabs due to this conflict, Saudi Arabia could no longer ignore this sentiment. The suspension of Saudi-Israel normalization is a major boon for Hamas and Iran.

Meanwhile, attention must be paid to the movements of Hezbollah, the Shia armed group based in Lebanon. Hezbollah, which possesses far greater military strength than Hamas, could change the course of the war if it joins the conflict to support Hamas against Israel. Hezbollah’s involvement is already becoming visible. If clashes with Hezbollah intensify, Israel will face a difficult two-front war in the south and north. Not only Hezbollah, but also hostile countries to Israel such as Syria, Iraq, and Yemen could launch drone attacks. Hezbollah will likely determine the intensity of its involvement based on the extent of Israel’s attacks on the Gaza Strip.

Iran, which has supported both Hezbollah and Hamas, is also a variable. If Iran directly becomes a party to the conflict, the situation could spiral out of control. Whether to avoid such a scenario or not, a U.S. official has drawn a line by stating there is no evidence that Iran was directly involved in Hamas’s recent invasion. Last month, the U.S. exchanged prisoners with Iran and released $6 billion in oil export funds frozen in South Korean banks due to U.S. sanctions, transferring the money to Iran. Having worked to improve relations with Iran, the U.S. may find it burdensome to return to a cooling period with Iran. If the U.S. and Western countries impose sanctions on Iran citing support for Hamas, Iran will strongly retaliate.

If the war with Hamas prolongs, Israel’s economic damage is also expected. Israel has already suspended operations at the Tamar gas field, as it could become a target of Hezbollah attacks. Arab leaders from countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which had already improved relations with Israel, are actively working to prevent the conflict from escalating. It remains to be seen whether China, which mediated the Saudi-Iran reconciliation, can help suppress rising tensions. The U.S., amid the ongoing Ukraine war, may also not want the conflict to expand further. Ultimately, Israel’s position, having suffered significant damage from this attack, will be the most important, but the direction of the situation will be determined by the complex interplay of various international forces.

Kim Dong-gi, author of 'The Power of Geopolitics'

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.