[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] If Chinese Companies Enter Kaesong Industrial Complex, 'Hamas Hostage Crisis' Could Also Happen in North Korea

JCS, "Hostage Secured in Border Area Raises Tensions"
Difficulty in Retaliation if Hostages Involved in Kaesong Industrial Complex

As the Palestinian armed group Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel and is holding hostages, concerns are rising that North Korea could also imitate hostage-taking in the frontline areas during wartime situations.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 10th, Kang Shin-chul, Chief of Operations at the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reported on the "Lessons and Response Measures from the Israel-Hamas War" at the National Defense Committee's audit held at the Ministry of National Defense building in Yongsan, stating, "North Korea could occupy border areas and secure hostages to escalate tensions."

The Kaesong Industrial Complex is considered a representative border area where North Korea could secure hostages. Following the fourth nuclear test in January 2016 and successive missile launches in February, the Kaesong Industrial Complex was shut down, and all South Korean nationals withdrew. Since then, North Korea has begun large-scale redeployment of troops near the Kaesong Industrial Complex. From North Korea’s perspective, in the event of a military confrontation, the Kaesong Industrial Complex could be used as a strategic military stronghold. Representative units include the 6th Division, which possesses the main battle tanks 'Chunma-ho' and armored vehicles, and the 64th Division, armed with 170mm self-propelled artillery and 240mm multiple rocket launchers targeting the Seoul metropolitan area.

At the time of the Kaesong Industrial Complex closure, North Korea declared through a warning of action that all issues raised in inter-Korean relations would be handled according to wartime laws. Handling matters under wartime laws is interpreted to mean that during war, enemy assets can be frozen and civilians detained. The problem is that if North Korean residents or foreigners remain inside the Kaesong Industrial Complex, it would be difficult for South Korea and the U.S. to retaliate during wartime. North Korea could counterattack by claiming that attacks are being carried out against civilians.

Recent Increased Activity at Kaesong Industrial Complex... Possibility of Korean Peninsula Crisis if Chinese Companies Move In

Recently, commuter buses were spotted at about 40 factory sites in the North Korean Kaesong Industrial Complex. Evidence emerged that South Korean buses, which were used for worker commuting, stopped at buildings in the Kaesong Industrial Complex, raising suspicions that North Korea is continuing to operate these factories.

Earlier this year, it was also understood that North Korea was attempting to attract Chinese capital to the Kaesong Industrial Complex. If North Korea were to allow Chinese companies to move in without authorization despite United Nations Security Council sanctions against North Korea, there are concerns that China could become involved in a crisis on the Korean Peninsula during wartime.

When South Korean nationals were staying at the Kaesong Industrial Complex, South Korea and the U.S. had developed rescue operation plans to protect their personnel. In fact, during the 2010 Cheonan sinking incident, former Defense Minister Kim Tae-young revealed that South Korea and the U.S. were preparing countermeasures for potential hostage situations at the Kaesong Industrial Complex. It is also known that the plan included requesting large-scale deployment of U.S. forces to rescue South Korean workers in emergencies.

At that time, South Korea and the U.S. assumed the closure of the Kaesong Industrial Complex. The scenario included "North Korea freezing and confiscating South Korean assets → South Korea cutting off water and electricity → North Korea advancing military units." Counterterrorism and suppression scenarios vary depending on the situation but are broadly divided into three stages: clearing access routes to hostage areas, negotiation phases, and suppressing hostage takers if negotiations fail. However, the military assesses that if there are many hostages as in the Kaesong Industrial Complex, a large-scale military operation is inevitable, ultimately leading to full-scale war.

It is known that at the time, South Korea and the U.S. planned operations to suppress air superiority, including strikes on anti-aircraft artillery units and fighter jet bases. To prevent large-scale intervention by North Korean troops near the Kaesong Industrial Complex, U.S. A-10 ground attack aircraft and AH-64 Apache attack helicopters would be deployed, with MH-60 special operations helicopters ultimately mobilized for hostage transport.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.