China Falling Behind the US... "Difficult to Surpass Within This Century"

IMF Lowers China's Growth Forecast from 5.2% to 5%
China's GDP at 64.5% of US Economic Size

The likelihood of China surpassing the United States in economic scale in the short term is decreasing. Even the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which had been relatively optimistic about China's economic situation, has lowered its growth forecast for this year.

On the 10th, the IMF released its "World Economic Outlook," lowering China's economic growth forecast for this year from 5.2% to 5.0%, a 0.2 percentage point decrease. The IMF stated, "As China's real estate crisis deepens, it could become a risk factor for the global economy." The growth forecast for next year was also cut significantly from 4.8% to 4.2%, a 0.6 percentage point drop.

The Hong Kong South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that "China's grand ambition to topple the United States and become the world's largest economic power is becoming increasingly doubtful," adding that "considering the yuan depreciation and the IMF's forecast, the gap with the U.S. could widen again."

According to SCMP, as of the first half of this year, China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 64.5% of the U.S. level, the lowest since 2020. This figure had reached an all-time high of 77.3% in 2021 when China's economic growth rate exceeded 8%, but then fell to 70.7% last year.

The U.S.-based research firm Rhodium Group attributed this to "delays in China's reforms," stating, "China will not catch up to the U.S. in terms of GDP this decade, or even this century."

Although China has not officially set a goal to surpass the U.S. in economic scale, it continues to closely monitor the gap with the United States. In May, the National Development and Reform Commission pointed to high inflation and a strong dollar as causes for the widening gap between China and the U.S.

Wang Huiyao, a researcher at the China Center for Globalization, a non-governmental think tank, argued that China's fundamentals remain solid. He said, "As long as China maintains 4-5% annual growth, it has a significant chance to surpass the U.S. by 2035."

Voices are also emerging that more proactive government measures to support consumption are necessary for China's economic growth. Wang Yongli, Chief Executive of China International Futures, emphasized in a recent report that "it is urgent to introduce consumption stimulation measures such as cash vouchers," and stressed that "while pushing reforms, the government must maintain discipline, refrain from economic interference, and uphold law and equality to promote further growth."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.