Mega-ton Scale Impact Expected in Gangseo District Mayor Election... The Biggest Issue is 'Voter Turnout'

Higher Voter Turnout Expected to Favor Opposition
Lower Turnout Means Supporter Cohesion Will Decide Election Outcome
Aftermath Unavoidable for Both Ruling and Opposition Parties Depending on Election Results

With the Seoul Gangseo District Mayor election, a barometer of voter sentiment in the metropolitan area for next year's National Assembly general election, just a week away, both ruling and opposition parties have entered an all-out battle. Both sides consider voter turnout the biggest variable, and their calculations diverge depending on whether it surpasses the 40% mark. Since this election is held about six months before the general election, it is expected that the aftermath will be significant for each party depending on the results.

On the 4th, both parties concentrated their efforts on campaigning for the Gangseo District Mayor election. The Democratic Party issued a full mobilization order to its members, instructing them to engage in campaign activities. The group of lawmakers, divided into 20 teams based on standing committees, planned to support campaigning once before the early voting and once before the main election. Prior to this, on the 25th of last month, Yoon Jae-ok, the floor leader of the People Power Party, instructed his members to be assigned to the 20 neighborhoods of Gangseo-gu, visit each at least three times, and submit result reports. In addition, both parties have been holding on-site supreme council meetings at the Gangseo District Office and policy briefings involving many leaders to fully commit to the election battle.

Election posters are posted near the Hwagog Station intersection in Gangseo-gu, Seoul, on the 4th, one week before the by-election for the Gangseo District Mayor. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

Although this election is only for one basic local government head, both parties are risking everything by assigning their lawmakers down to the neighborhood level because it is the only election before next year's general election and provides insight into voter sentiment in the metropolitan area.

The biggest variable in this election is voter turnout. Both parties are paying close attention to whether turnout exceeds 40%. If it is below 40%, both parties consider it manageable, but if it surpasses that, the opposition party is generally seen as having the advantage. Ha Tae-kyung, a People Power Party lawmaker, appeared on MBC Radio's 'Kim Jong-bae's Focus' on the day and said regarding the Gangseo District Mayor by-election, "The most important thing seems to be how many supporters can be brought to the polling stations," but added, "If turnout is very high, (there could be a scenario where the former People Power Party leader Lee Jun-seok loses by an 18 percentage point margin), but our party has a solid base and both strong supporter groups are currently quite agitated. (People Power Party supporters) seem very likely to actively go to the polls."

Ha analyzed, "(Up to 40% turnout) it is a battle of fixed supporter bases." If turnout remains around 40%, the election result could vary depending on how well each party's supporters consolidate.

Hong Ik-pyo, the floor leader of the Democratic Party, said on the same radio program, "Usually, by-elections have a turnout in the mid to high 30% range, but because interest is high, I expect it to exceed 40%," and added, "Turnout and how actively our supporters actually go to the polls will determine the outcome that day."

Because this by-election is limited to Gangseo-gu, attention is focused on early voting turnout on Friday and Saturday (the 6th and 7th). Hong Joon-pyo, mayor of Daegu, said on social media on the 25th of last month, "If early voting reaches the 20% range, that favors the opposition, and if turnout is low, that gives hope to the ruling party." Regarding this forecast, Mayor Hong emphasized, "The camp that loses the Gangseo District Mayor by-election will face a megaton-level shock," and added, "This is not a simple by-election but an important battle to preview the metropolitan area general election landscape next year."

As Mayor Hong predicted, the election results are expected to send ripples through the political world. In this regard, the political sphere is paying attention not only to the win or loss but also to the margin of vote difference. For example, in the local elections on June 1 last year, Kim Tae-woo, the People Power Party candidate (the current candidate), won with 51.3%, beating Kim Seung-hyun of the Democratic Party by 3.2 percentage points. However, in the 5th to 7th local elections, the Democratic Party won the Gangseo District Mayor election by margins ranging from 9.8 to 35.8 percentage points. Although the recent trend has shifted, this is a district where the Democratic Party is dominant. In fact, all three National Assembly members from this area are from the Democratic Party. For this reason, the Democratic Party is expecting a landslide victory. However, if they lose this election or only achieve a narrow lead, internal turmoil is anticipated. Voices calling for additional measures to win metropolitan voter sentiment could flood in.

If the People Power Party achieves a narrow victory, it could gain confidence to perform well in next year's metropolitan area general election. However, if they lose by double digits, despite the responsibility for the by-election, there will inevitably be accountability for nominating candidate Kim. In particular, responsibility could also be raised against President Yoon Seok-youl, who pardoned candidate Kim and opened the path for his candidacy. Since the metropolitan area is expected to hold a majority of seats in next year's general election, a battle over responsibility within the ruling party is also anticipated.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.