This Year’s Nationwide Apartment Sales Likely to Fall Below 300,000 Units... Lowest in 5 Years
By September this year, only about 126,000 housing units were sold
Annual sales ranged from 360,000 to 380,000 units from 2020 to 2022
The supply volume for this year is expected to record the lowest level in five years since 2018. Although the government recently announced measures to revitalize housing supply, there are still many units in the private sector that have not set sales schedules, raising the possibility that the annual supply volume may fall below 300,000 units.
A banner reading 'Passed Detailed Safety Inspection' posted in front of Jamwon Hangang Apartment. Photo by Younghan Heo younghan@
View original imageAccording to Real Estate R114 on the 3rd, the total number of apartments supplied nationwide (including public and private apartments, and union members of redevelopment projects) up to September this year was 126,345 units.
Considering that the annual supply volume ranged from 360,000 to 380,000 units from 2020 to last year, this is a low level even accounting for the remaining supply in the fourth quarter.
Among these, 54.6% or 69,018 units were supplied in the metropolitan area including Seoul. On the other hand, the supply performance in local areas was sluggish. Up to September this year, the number of apartments supplied in local areas was 57,327 units, less than that of the metropolitan area.
This appears to be because many local areas postponed their sales schedules compared to the metropolitan area. Local areas have more unsold units than the metropolitan area, raising concerns about unsold inventory, and project financing (PF) funding has not been smooth, so many construction companies postponed subscription applications.
Accordingly, the annual supply volume is also expected to fall short of previous years.
According to Real Estate R114’s survey, the number of apartments likely to be supplied nationwide from October to December this year is about 179,000 units. Adding the previously supplied 126,000 units, the maximum annual supply volume this year is expected to be about 305,000 units.
This is a 17.8% decrease compared to the approximately 371,000 units supplied last year, marking the lowest volume in five years since 299,390 units were supplied in 2018.
However, only about 117,400 units have set sales schedules so far, and the remaining 61,600 units have not confirmed their sales timing, so the industry expects that the supply volume this year will not even reach 300,000 units.
For example, the Jamsil Jinju Apartment reconstruction in Sincheon-dong, Songpa-gu (Raemian I-Park), the Sinbanpo 15th reconstruction in Banpo-dong, Seocho-gu (Raemian Onepentas), and the Cheongdam Samik Apartment reconstruction in Cheongdam-dong, Gangnam-gu (Cheongdam Le El), which were originally scheduled for sales this year, are expected to be postponed to next year.
Experts are concerned that if the decrease in supply volume leads to a decrease in move-ins, it could become a factor causing housing price instability in 2 to 3 years. As concerns about supply reduction spread in the market, the government announced housing supply revitalization measures at the end of last month. However, it is considered difficult to expand supply volume immediately.
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Lee Eun-hyung, a research fellow at the Korea Construction Policy Research Institute, said, "The core of private projects is securing profitability, and there is little reason to rush construction on sites that have not started construction until now," adding, "Even if there are such cases, the impact of these volumes on the overall market will not be significant."
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