US Semiconductor Policy Burden... "Memory Market Recovery Milder Than Expected"

NICE Credit Rating, Semiconductor Industry Review Report Released
"DRAM to Lead Memory Market Recovery Over the Next 12 Months"

Researchers are supporting performance evaluation for semiconductor material product development in the 12-inch semiconductor testbed cleanroom at the Daejeon Nano Convergence Technology Institute. It is forecasted that the global semiconductor shortage will continue until the middle of next year. As the local industry in Gunnae, which is pursuing a semiconductor ecosystem advancement strategy, faces potential impacts from this trend, attention is focused on the situation, while various countries around the world are also rolling out countermeasures. Our government is accelerating the advancement of the semiconductor ecosystem. Through the 'K-Semiconductor Strategy Report,' the government envisions a leap to becoming a comprehensive semiconductor powerhouse by 2030 and plans to complete semiconductor localization through massive investments and tax benefits. Having achieved K-quarantine through COVID-19, South Korea is expected to proudly demonstrate the success of K-semiconductors in the global semiconductor supremacy competition. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung, Daejeon aymsdream@

There is an analysis that the recovery of the memory semiconductor industry will be slower than expected. While global economic uncertainties are restricting the recovery of actual demand, the U.S. semiconductor policies aimed at restructuring the supply chain are acting as a burden on memory semiconductor companies.

Kim Woong, Senior Researcher at the Corporate Evaluation Division of NICE Credit Rating, stated in the 'Industry Check - Memory Semiconductors' report on the 26th, "Although a recovery in the market centered on DRAM is expected, considering the uncertain demand environment, the pace of improvement will be moderate."

Researcher Kim forecasted that DRAM will lead the rebound in the memory market over the next 12 months. This is because the environment for the full-scale market penetration of 'DDR5', a server DRAM product, is expected to be established after the fourth quarter of this year. The delay in Intel's new central processing unit (CPU) launch, longer inventory adjustments in general server markets such as cloud, and the expanded effect of production cuts are factors. Along with this, the rebound in DRAM prices for major IT products is also expected to spread.

The expansion of the demand base for DRAM is also a positive factor for the improvement of the memory market. It is expected that big tech companies will continue to increase their investment share to secure a lead in the generative artificial intelligence (AI) market. Researcher Kim predicted, "Considering NVIDIA's plan to expand supply of AI accelerators and the roadmap for next-generation product development, shipments of next-generation DRAM including High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) will show a strong trend."

Along with this, the development of solutions such as CXL (Compute Express Link, a next-generation interface used in high-performance computing systems) and PIM (Processing In Memory, intelligent memory semiconductors) is progressing in parallel, expanding the demand base for DRAM.

However, global economic tightening and China's economic slowdown remain obstacles to market improvement. Researcher Kim pointed out, "Uncertainty about a full-scale recovery in actual demand outside of AI still remains." He added, "The main risk factors in the short term include consumption slowdown in major countries due to macroeconomic uncertainties, delayed stabilization of supply and demand for NAND, and the possibility of strengthened export restrictions on semiconductor chips to China."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.