IEA: "OPEC+ to Extend Production Cuts Until Year-End... Oil Supply Shortage Expected to Continue"

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus (OPEC+), a coalition of major oil-producing countries including Saudi Arabia and Russia, has extended production cuts until the end of this year, leading to forecasts of significant supply shortages continuing through the fourth quarter.

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On the 13th (local time), the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its September Oil Market Report, stating that while the impact of OPEC+ production cuts was largely offset by increased oil production from Iran, it expects substantial supply shortages due to reduced OPEC+ output from this month through the fourth quarter.

Saudi Arabia, which has been gradually limiting supply since last year, announced on the 5th that it will extend its voluntary production cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) for an additional three months until December. Earlier, Russia also decided to maintain its voluntary cut of 300,000 barrels per day until the end of the year.

Global oil inventories are steadily declining. As of last month, observed global oil stocks plunged by 76.3 million barrels, marking the lowest level in 13 months. Notably, oil inventories in non-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (non-OECD) countries decreased by 20.8 million barrels, largely due to significant reductions in China. Inventories within OECD countries fell by 3.2 million barrels, showing a relatively smaller decline.

The IEA stated, "Oil inventories will remain uncomfortably low," adding, "Considering the fragile economic environment, the risk of heightened volatility that benefits neither producers nor consumers will increase."

Global oil demand this year is projected to reach 101.8 million barrels per day, influenced by a recovery in Chinese consumption. This figure is slightly revised downward from last month's forecast of 102.2 million barrels per day. Next year, global oil demand is expected to be 102.8 million barrels per day, affected by sluggish gross domestic product (GDP) growth and structural declines in road transport fuel consumption in major markets.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.