[War & Business] Why a China-Russia Military Alliance Has Not Been Formed

"Let's consider all the joint projects between the two countries that have been underway as null and void."

In October 1959, Mao Zedong, then leader of China, declared the termination of cooperative relations between the two countries to Nikita Khrushchev, the Secretary General of the Soviet Communist Party, who was visiting Beijing. This was a historic moment marking the beginning of the so-called 'Sino-Soviet split,' which had a decisive impact not only on world history but also on the eventual collapse of the Soviet Union. Later, in the 1962 border conflict between China and India, Russia openly sided with India, causing a complete rift between China and the Soviet Union.

Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) are holding talks during their visit to the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, last March. [Image source=Yonhap News]

Although the two countries had formed a military alliance during the Korean War in 1950, tensions had already begun to build at that time. When China intervened in the Korean War in October 1950, it expected strong military support from the Soviet Union, but proper support was lacking. The Soviet Union was even criticized for profiting by exporting aid supplies to China at high prices. In particular, China harbored significant resentment over missing the opportunity to unify with Taiwan due to the damages suffered during the Korean War.

Nevertheless, the friendly relations between the two countries, maintained until Stalin's death in 1953, began to falter significantly after Khrushchev came to power. The Khrushchev administration continuously obstructed China's independent nuclear weapons development. Conversely, Mao Zedong's regime fiercely criticized Khrushchev's government for capitulating to the United States following the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. After border disputes erupted, the alliance between China and the Soviet Union deteriorated into a mere formality, and was completely severed when China refused to renew the alliance treaty in 1980.

Even after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the establishment of the current Russian Putin administration, military cooperation between the two countries has continued, but the formation of an alliance has yet to be mentioned. This is because many grievances remain unresolved between the two nations, and there are more conflicting interests than expected.

The border issue spanning over 4,000 km between the two countries remains complex. The conflict between China, which considers Outer Mongolia and the Primorsky Krai region as unrecaptured territories, and Russia, which is highly wary of this, still lurks beneath the surface. From China's perspective, it is also displeasing that India, with which China recently had border disputes and even violent clashes, maintains a very close relationship with Russia.

China's attempts to bribe Russian scientists or conduct cyberattacks through hackers to steal Russian military secrets and technology are also major obstacles to the development of bilateral relations. Since China disassembled the Su-57 fighter jets imported from Russia in the 1990s without permission to develop its own fighter jet engines, Russia has been reluctant to transfer sensitive military technology.

Some express concerns about joint military exercises among North Korea, China, and Russia, but this is not straightforward either. The areas where the three countries can conduct joint military exercises in Northeast Asia are limited to the East Sea region, and their weapon systems and unit training methods are not unified at all. Establishing a joint training system similar to the regular joint exercises between South Korea and the U.S., or the U.S. and Japan, which are mostly equipped with American weapons, would require considerable time and effort.

Ultimately, the relationship between China and Russia, though currently united against the U.S. and the West, is closer to an uneasy alliance (Wuyue Tongzhou, 吳越同舟) that can easily split at any time. The world’s attention is focused on what aftershocks this unbridgeable gap between the two countries will cause in the future geopolitical landscape of Northeast Asia.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.