CNN "A Handful of Voters to Decide Next Year's US Election... Swing States at Record Low" Forecast

Decision in Six Battleground States: Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania

The rematch between U.S. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, which is highly anticipated in next year's presidential election, is expected to be decided in six battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. It is forecasted that there will be fewer battleground states than in any previous election.

On the 4th (local time), U.S. CNN reported that the number of battleground states in next year's presidential election will be at most 7 to 8 out of the 50 states, and as few as 4 in the lowest case, marking a historic low. CNN stated, "Although much remains uncertain one year before the start of the general election race next year, it is clear that the outcome will be decided by a handful of voters in a small number of battleground states."

In fact, from the 2008 presidential election when former President Barack Obama was first elected through the 2020 election, in four elections, 20 states out of the total 50 consistently gave more votes to either the Democratic or Republican candidate. CNN pointed out, "This means 80% of the total electoral votes, with 40 states voting for the same party's candidate four consecutive times, which is unprecedented in U.S. history since the 20th century." Even when former President Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected four consecutive times from 1932 to 1944, only two-thirds of the 50 states made the same choice.

President Joe Biden of the United States. [Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Looking at voting trends from 1976 to 1988, only half of the states voted for the same party each time. Moreover, among the 10 states that switched party support since 2008, four states?Indiana, Iowa, Ohio, and Florida?have all firmly returned to Republican support during the Trump era, which effectively reduces the number of battleground states even further.

North Carolina is also included among these 10 states, but except for former President Obama's first victory, the Republican Party has generally held strong influence there. According to CNN, election experts classify the practical battleground states for next year's presidential election as Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania based on various voting tendencies and polls including the presidential election.

Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin supported former President Trump in the 2016 election but swung to President Biden in 2020. Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania were won by President Biden in the last election, but current voter sentiment is uncertain. The atmosphere in North Carolina, which Biden also won in the last election, is similar.

Some experts also classify New Hampshire, which leans Democratic, as a battleground state. CNN noted, "Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin are likely to be the four practical battleground states. New Hampshire is unlikely to elect a strongly conservative Republican candidate, and Pennsylvania and Michigan will also be difficult for Republicans to reclaim."

Accordingly, election strategies for both the Democratic and Republican parties are likely to focus on these battleground states. However, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which were traditionally Democratic 'blue states' but swung to Trump in 2016 and contributed decisively to his victory, have seen the Democrats win three consecutive elections including 2020, indicating a Democratic advantage.

On the other hand, Wisconsin is expected to be a fiercely contested area in next year's election, as the Democratic candidate narrowly won the governor's race last year, while Republican Senator Ron Johnson won a close victory in the Senate race. However, since the Democratic candidate won decisively in the recent Wisconsin Supreme Court election where abortion rights were a key issue, if abortion becomes a major issue in next year's election, it could favor the Democrats.

In North Carolina, where the Republican-controlled state legislature pushed through an abortion ban law, the Democrats cautiously hope for a turnaround, while in Georgia and Arizona, the Democrats may face a considerably difficult path.

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