[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea Raises Provocation Level... Next Is ICBM?

In March, SRBM → Cruise Missile → ICBM Sequence
Possibility of Nuclear Force Display on North Korea's Regime Foundation Day, September 9

There is a prospect that North Korea may soon conduct additional launches of new solid-fuel engine intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). North Korea has shown a pattern of launching ICBMs following short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) and long-range cruise missiles.

According to the Joint Chiefs of Staff on the 4th, North Korea launched two long-range strategic cruise missiles (North Korean version of Tomahawk, Hwasal-1 and -2 types) in the early morning of the 2nd. The next day, the Korean Central News Agency released photos of the launch and aerial explosion of one cruise missile. However, only photos of one missile launch were released, suggesting a high possibility that the other missile failed to launch successfully. Our military also assessed, "North Korea's announcement was exaggerated. Not all were successful."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

North Korea claimed this cruise missile launch was a ‘tactical nuclear attack simulated launch exercise.’ It was launched following a short-range ballistic missile (SRBM), showing a missile launch pattern similar to that of March. On March 19, North Korea launched an estimated 'KN-23' SRBM, followed by four cruise missiles including 'Hwasong-1 and -2' on March 22. Then, on April 13, a new solid-fuel engine ICBM, likely a long-range missile, was fired into the East Sea near Pyongyang.

Considering this pattern, it is highly likely that North Korea will conduct additional ICBM launches soon. Following the launch of two KN-24 missiles on August 30, and the long-range strategic cruise missile launch on the 2nd, it appears to be a process of escalating provocations to raise tensions. If North Korea launches an ICBM, the timing is expected to coincide with the 75th anniversary of the founding of the North Korean regime (September 9), as this would maximize the impact in line with domestic and international political schedules.

When North Korea launched an ICBM in April, the Korea-U.S. Integrated Defense Dialogue (KIDD, 12th?13th) and the Korea-U.S.-Japan Security Meeting (DTT, 14th) were being held in Washington. This was a warning not to overlook trilateral cooperation on North Korean nuclear issues among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan.

Technologically, additional launches are inevitable. Solid-fuel ICBMs have higher strategic utility than liquid-fuel ICBMs. Solid-fuel ICBMs carry solid fuel, which is a mixture of fuel and oxidizer, mounted like a ‘battery’ on a transporter erector launcher (TEL), allowing them to wait underground or in tunnels for extended periods and launch within seconds of receiving the order.

The range of ICBMs also needs to be extended. The solid-fuel ICBM first launched in April flew about 1,000 km after being launched from a TEL and fell outside the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) near Hokkaido, Japan. The military estimates that if launched at a normal angle, it would have flown about 3,000 to 4,000 km. At that time, the ICBM was presumed to be a test launch of a medium-range ballistic missile with first and second-stage propulsion, but to achieve a range exceeding 11,000 km, development of a three-stage solid-fuel ICBM must be completed.

If the three-stage development is completed and a test launch is conducted, it is expected that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will observe the launch site and demonstrate nuclear strike capability against the U.S. mainland. A government official said, “North Korea needs to develop solid-fuel ICBMs as part of completing its nuclear deterrent against the U.S., and since it must miniaturize and mount hydrogen bombs on them, it is expected to conduct various test launches.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.