Saudi-Israel Diplomatic Relations Established... Will the US Regain Middle East Hegemony?

The United States, mediating the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel?long-standing adversaries in the Middle East?is expected to successfully establish diplomatic relations between the two countries as early as the first half of next year. The Middle East, which has become a key battleground in the US-China hegemonic competition, is now testing America's influence.

On the 9th (local time), The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported, citing US government officials, that the normalization of diplomatic relations between the US and Saudi Arabia is currently in detailed coordination stages, and formal diplomatic ties could be established within 9 months to a year.

The US’s move to mediate the establishment of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel reflects a sense of crisis over the significant erosion of American influence in the Middle East. In March, after behind-the-scenes negotiations led by China, Saudi Arabia and Iran restored diplomatic relations that had been severed for seven years, delivering a major blow to the US. As cracks began to appear in the long-standing alliance between the US and Saudi Arabia, and China rapidly expanded its influence in the Middle East, the US grew increasingly urgent.

Since May, key figures in the Biden administration’s diplomatic and security team, including National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have flown to Saudi Arabia one after another to exert efforts to realize diplomatic ties with Israel.

Saudi Arabia is reportedly demanding significant compensation from the Biden administration in exchange for establishing diplomatic relations with Israel. Along with US defense commitments, Saudi Arabia is requesting minimal restrictions on US arms exports, permission for uranium enrichment for civilian nuclear development, and technical support. Within the US, concerns have spread that allowing Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium could eventually lead to nuclear weapons development, which has stalled progress in discussions.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. [Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

However, it is reported that the atmosphere has shifted following a meeting between Jake Sullivan, White House National Security Advisor, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman held recently in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Significant progress has been made in discussions regarding Saudi Arabia’s civilian nuclear development and US security guarantees, and the issue of China’s expanding influence in the Middle East has also been included in the negotiation agenda.

Regarding Saudi Arabia’s demand for major Israeli concessions for the establishment of a Palestinian independent state, the WSJ reported that the US has taken the position that Saudi Arabia must promise to "distance itself economically and militarily from China."

US officials say the US demands include a commitment to prohibit the establishment of Chinese military bases on Saudi territory, restrictions on the use of products from Chinese companies such as Huawei, and the cessation of yuan-denominated transactions. The US has also expressed a desire to resolve conflicts caused by Saudi Arabia’s reduction in oil production.

The biggest obstacle to reaching an agreement is the Palestinian issue. WSJ analyzed that Israel must show a progressive stance on this issue for the negotiations to succeed.

The US government’s official stance on the progress of the negotiations remains cautious. John Kirby, White House National Security Council (NSC) Coordinator for Strategic Communications, said, "There is still a long way to go in the negotiation process," and "A framework for normalizing relations between the two countries has not yet been agreed upon."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.