'US-China Entering a "Reconciliation Mood"... Will It Open the Door for Korea-China Dialogue in ASEAN?'

ASEAN-Related Schedules One After Another... Korea-China, Time for Diplomacy
US, Consecutive High-Level Visits to China... Moves for Economic Communication
"Must Seize Dialogue Opportunities... Clear Strategy Needed"

Amid a series of high-level meetings between the United States and China, attention is focused on whether South Korea and China will also open channels of dialogue during ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) related diplomatic schedules. Observers suggest that communication groundwork could be established as South Korea’s need for China’s persuasion on North Korea aligns with China’s interest in managing supply chains through South Korea.

According to diplomatic sources on the 11th, there is talk of a possible meeting between Foreign Minister Park Jin and Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang at the ASEAN diplomatic events held consecutively in Jakarta, Indonesia, on the 13th and 14th of this month. Minister Park is scheduled to attend the Korea-ASEAN and ASEAN+3 (Korea-China-Japan) Foreign Ministers’ Meetings on the 13th, followed by the East Asia Summit (EAS) and ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) Foreign Ministers’ Meetings on the 14th.

Choi Young-sam, Deputy Foreign Minister, Visits China; Resumption of High-Level Talks

The Taegeukgi and China's Five-star Red Flag

South Korea and China have maintained a somewhat strained relationship. South Korea has aligned closely with its largest ally, the United States, amid Northeast Asian hegemonic competition. Since the inauguration of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration, the abandonment of strategic ambiguity in favor of 'value diplomacy' has been a decisive factor in the cooling of relations with China, which belongs to the authoritarian camp. Relations between the two countries sharply deteriorated, especially following the 'betting remark' made by Xing Haiming, the Chinese Ambassador to South Korea.

However, recently, Deputy Foreign Minister Choi Young-sam’s visit to China to resume high-level dialogue has marked the first step toward some recovery. Wang Yi, a member of the Communist Party Central Political Bureau and regarded as China’s top diplomat, met with former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon the day before and sent a conciliatory gesture by expressing hope that South Korea and China would overcome 'temporary difficulties' and open up vast prospects for development.

With the resumption of communication between the United States and China, the space for dialogue has also expanded. Following U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit last month, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who visited China, expressed optimism after completing her visit on the 9th, saying it would help establish productive communication channels. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng also reportedly expressed regret over the 'spy balloon incident,' which had pushed bilateral relations into a tense phase, in an unusual move.

"We Must Seize the Opportunity for Dialogue... What Matters Is Our Own Strategy"

President Yoon Suk-yeol shaking hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping

South Korea and China’s interests align. South Korea’s position is to deter North Korea’s nuclear threat and increase China’s engagement with North Korea, while China’s demand is to manage supply chains through South Korea and check the United States. The government’s expressed intention to hold a 'Korea-China-Japan trilateral summit' within the year is also a factor to consider. A Foreign Ministry official said, "Both countries basically agree on the necessity of high-level communication on multilateral occasions," but added, "At present, there is no specific information to explain regarding the Korea-China Foreign Ministers’ meeting."

Joo Jae-woo, director of the China Research Center at the Korea Institute for National Strategy, urged a 'clear strategy.' He advised securing competitiveness by leveraging technological advantages such as semiconductors amid economic difficulties faced by both the U.S. and China. Director Joo said, "If an opportunity to engage in dialogue with China arises, it should be actively utilized to build momentum," and noted, "The U.S. is also trying to open channels in the economic sector." He emphasized, "Without a clear strategy, rushing in could lead to being dragged by China and then pressured again by the U.S., creating a vicious cycle."

Meanwhile, Japan is expected to focus on persuading others to discharge contaminated water from the Fukushima nuclear plant, based on the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report stating that the impact on human health is minimal, at this multilateral forum. Whether North Korea will dispatch Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui is also a point of interest, as the ARF Foreign Ministers’ Meeting is the only regional security consultative body that North Korea participates in. However, North Korea has previously sent Ambassador An Kwang-il, who is also the Permanent Representative to ASEAN in Indonesia, to attend the meetings held via video conference in 2020-2021 and the in-person meeting last year on its behalf.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.