China's National People's Congress: "Q2 Growth at 7.7%... Annual 5.7%"

Renmin University of China forecasted that the economic growth rate for the second quarter of this year will reach 7.7%. On an annual basis, it is expected to be around 5.7%, exceeding the government’s target of approximately 5%.

The China Macroeconomic Forum of Renmin University of China stated in its recently published "Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast Report" that "China’s economy this year shows a recovery trend advancing amid difficulties and will rely heavily on policies." The report projected that China’s GDP growth rate will be 7.7% in the second quarter following 4.5% in the first quarter, 4.5% in the third quarter, and 5.9% in the fourth quarter. Based on the first half of the year, the growth rate is expected to be 6.2%, with an annual growth rate of 5.7%.

Additionally, under a demand-driven scenario where the government focuses on expanding domestic consumption, an annual growth of 6.1% is expected. Under a supply-driven scenario relying on industrial and service sector production, an annual growth of 5.2% is anticipated.

Annual consumption is expected to increase by 8% compared to the previous year, investment by 4.5%, while exports are forecasted to decline by 4.9%. By industry, the tertiary sector is expected to grow by 7%, the secondary sector by 4.2%, and the primary sector by 3.5%. The report explained that "the service industry will be the main driver of short-term economic growth this year."

Ning Jizhe, former head of the National Bureau of Statistics, said, "The foundation for economic recovery is still not solid and has not yet normalized," adding, "The most important period is the third quarter, and policies need to be introduced early and swiftly."

The report also diagnosed that overall improvement in corporate profits, employment, and income sectors is necessary for economic recovery. Short-term risk factors include insufficient macro policies, sluggish real estate and automobile markets, pressure from local government debt, and export weakness due to the global economic slowdown.

Furthermore, in terms of fiscal policy expansion, it proposed scientifically combining consumption stimulus measures with income improvement, and addressing income distribution through tax and fee reductions. Regarding monetary policy, it mentioned interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.