"Putin Knew About Prigozhin's Military Rebellion at Least 24 Hours in Advance"

No Removal of Prigozhin's Command... Mystery
US Intelligence Confirmed Information Two Weeks Before Rebellion

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Reports from foreign media suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin was aware of the military rebellion led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the mercenary company Wagner Group, at least a day in advance. However, the fact that Putin did not strip Prigozhin of his military authority or take preventive measures such as deploying defensive forces to stop the rebellion beforehand remains a mystery, raising doubts about the nature of this uprising.

On the 25th (local time), The Washington Post (WP), citing a senior U.S. official, reported, "President Putin appears to have been informed of Prigozhin's rebellion plan at least 24 hours in advance," but "it is unclear why he did not revoke Prigozhin's military authority or take preemptive actions to block the rebels' movements just before the rebellion."

Earlier, on the 23rd, Prigozhin claimed that the Russian Ministry of Defense had attacked the Wagner Group's rear camp, which he leads, with missiles, demanding punishment for the military leadership. He then left Ukraine and entered Russia. Wagner forces advanced north, seized military facilities in Rostov-on-Don in southern Russia on the 24th, and pushed forward to within 200 km of Moscow before withdrawing after accepting a mediation proposal from Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Prigozhin later announced plans to move to Belarus and has not appeared publicly since.

Although it remains a mystery why President Putin did not prepare in advance despite knowing about the rebellion plan, the prevailing analysis is that the Russian government did not respond strongly because Prigozhin was not aiming to overthrow the Putin regime. A senior Western official told WP, "Prigozhin tried to exploit the rift between the Russian military leadership and the Kremlin to widen the gap but failed," adding, "Now Putin and his top officials hate Prigozhin."

Previously, Prigozhin had strongly criticized Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, demanding his dismissal over the continued poor performance of the Russian military. Shoigu is one of Putin's closest aides and is sometimes regarded as Putin's successor within Russia. The New York Times (NYT) analyzed that "Prigozhin appears to have been striving to secure his position in Russian politics after the war."

Meanwhile, Western intelligence agencies, including those of the United States, reportedly detected Prigozhin's rebellion plans two weeks in advance. WP reported, "Western intelligence agencies, including the U.S., have been on high alert, viewing the prolonged political instability in Russia as a threat not only to the Ukraine war but also to security inside and outside Russia."

Western authorities express concerns that if the Putin regime, severely damaged in authority by this military rebellion, becomes unstable, Russia could descend into even greater chaos. The British daily The Times pointed out, "Putin's failure to control Prigozhin in a timely manner will lead to a crisis," adding, "While President Putin may still be able to overcome many challenges for now, in the long term, he could suffer a fatal blow."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.