Q3 Export Outlook 'Clear'... Semiconductor and Chemical Industry Market Expectations Rise

Korea International Trade Association Announces Q3 Export Industry Business Outlook Index (EBSI)

The export outlook index for the third quarter has turned to an upward trend for the first time in six quarters. In particular, market responses expecting export recovery were clear in the semiconductor and chemical industry product categories.

The Korea International Trade Association's International Trade and Commerce Research Institute announced the '2023 3rd Quarter Export Industry Business Survey Index (EBSI)' with this content on the 21st.

EBSI is an index representing companies' outlook on export conditions for the next quarter. Based on 100, if the outlook is expected to improve (worsen) compared to the previous quarter, the value will be greater (less) than 100.

The 3rd quarter EBSI recorded 108.7, exceeding the baseline of 100 for the first time in six quarters. This indicates high expectations for the recovery of export conditions for domestic companies in the second half of the year.

Among 15 major items, 10 items showed an EBSI above 100, clearly reflecting an expectation of improved export conditions. The highest indices were in the order of ships (135.6), chemical industry products (129.4), and semiconductors (128.5).

In particular, the semiconductor and chemical industry products showed a marked increase in EBSI compared to the previous quarter. In the 2nd quarter EBSI, semiconductors recorded 52.0, and chemical industry products recorded 93.8.

Looking at detailed categories, export consultations and contracts (125.2) and international logistics (114.2) conditions appeared to be improving, whereas import regulations and trade friction (92.5), manufacturing costs (98.9), and profitability (99.1) were expected to remain challenging.

Regarding responses on export difficulties, rising raw material prices and sluggish demand in export destination countries continued to rank high. Among these, import regulations, trade friction, buyer price reduction demands, and concerns about market encroachment by developing countries were added.

Kim Nayul, a researcher at the Korea International Trade Association, said, "It is positive that most industries responded that export conditions will improve. However, to accelerate export recovery, it is necessary to strengthen support so that our companies do not suffer disadvantages due to each country's carbon neutrality and supply chain policies, while resolving labor shortages and financial difficulties."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.