[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North's Ri Pyong-chol "June Launch" Warning a Trick? ... Why Was It Moved Up?

North Korea's Military No. 2 Warns "Launch Soon in June"
Typhoon 'Mawar' Approaching Okinawa on July 3
Shangri-La Dialogue, PSI Meeting and Other Backlashes

North Korea launched a space launch vehicle on the 31st, drawing attention to the background of the launch being moved up from the originally announced date. Ri Pyong-chol, the second-in-command of the North Korean military and vice chairman of the Workers' Party Central Military Commission, had fixed the launch timing to June the day before, and the launch was expected to take place around this weekend.

Ri Pyong-chol, vice chairman of the Workers' Party Central Military Commission, stated the day before, "We plan to soon launch the Military Reconnaissance Satellite (space launch vehicle) No. 1 in June," arguing that this is a matter of 'self-defense' in preparation for military threats from South Korea and the United States. North Korea had notified Japan, the regional navigation area adjustment authority of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the day before, that it would launch a satellite between 0:00 on the 31st and 0:00 on the 11th of next month, but this is the first time the military leadership has directly revealed the launch timing.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

North Korean Military Leadership Announces “June Launch”... But Typhoon Variable

Because of this, the launch timing of North Korea's space launch vehicle was strongly expected to be on the 2nd of next month. The weather supported this. Weather is a variable for North Korea to launch a satellite, as wind, rain, and clouds can have an impact. According to the weather forecast, Sinuiju was heavily cloudy on June 1. Sinuiju is about 50 km away from the West Sea launch site, and the wind was strong. From the 2nd to the 9th, the weather was expected to be relatively clear.

However, the second typhoon, Mawar, was expected to advance to about 120 km east of Okinawa, Japan, from the 3rd of next month, which seems to have prompted the launch timing to be moved up.

However, North Korea also notified the IMO in 2016 that it would launch the satellite ‘Kwangmyongsong-4’ between February 7 and 14 and launched it on the first scheduled day, the 7th. Because of this, experts on North Korea analyze that since the defense ministers of South Korea, the United States, and Japan are scheduled to strongly condemn North Korea's provocations at the Asia Security Conference (Shangri-La Dialogue) held in Singapore from June 2 to 4 next month, North Korea forced the provocation on this day to counteract it.

There is also speculation that the launch is a reaction to the high-level meeting marking the 20th anniversary of the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) and the Asia-Pacific rotational exercises held the day before in Jeju Island. PSI is an international cooperative activity launched in 2003 to prevent the illegal proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), delivery means, and related materials. Currently, 106 countries participate, and high-level meetings are held every five years.

Experts: “A Pressure Card for the Early Stage of the Shangri-La Dialogue”

In fact, the day before, Vice Chairman Ri stated through the Korean Central News Agency from the standpoint of ‘strengthening self-defense capabilities’ that "Our Military Reconnaissance Satellite No. 1, which will soon be launched in June, and various reconnaissance means to be newly tested (omitted) are indispensable for real-time tracking, monitoring, identifying, preemptive deterrence, and preparation against the dangerous military actions of the United States and its follower forces, and for strengthening the military readiness of the Republic's armed forces." He mentioned the South Korea-U.S. combined and joint firepower annihilation exercises, the multinational maritime blockade exercise ‘Eastern Endeavor 23’ hosted by South Korea on the 31st, and the deployment plans of U.S. strategic nuclear submarines (SSBN) to the Korean Peninsula, using these as justification for the reconnaissance satellite launch.

Nam Sung-wook, chairman of the Integrated Convergence Committee at Korea University, said, “Technically, it would have been difficult to delay because the second typhoon ‘Mawar’ was approaching,” adding, “Considering the Shangri-La Dialogue and the Asia-Pacific rotational exercises, they presented a pressure card at the early stage of the dialogue.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.