North Korea's Reconnaissance Satellite Launch Countdown... The Key Issue is 'Resolution'

North Military Power Figure Ri Pyong-chol "Reconnaissance Satellite Launch in June"
Improved Launch Vehicle Performance... Resolution Level 'Crude'
"May Launch Continuously... Drone Development Expected to Follow"

Ri Pyong-chol, the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Workers' Party of Korea and considered a key figure within the North Korean military, announced plans to launch a military reconnaissance satellite soon. In particular, by hinting at a 'new reconnaissance means,' attention is focused on whether this satellite launch will lead to military plans including long-range reconnaissance drones.

In a statement on June 30 through the Korean Central News Agency regarding the "Position on Strengthening Self-Defense Capability," Ri Pyong-chol said, "Our first military reconnaissance satellite, which will be launched soon in June, and various new reconnaissance means to be tested (omitted) are indispensable for real-time tracking, monitoring, identifying, preemptive deterrence, and preparation against the dangerous military actions of the United States and its follower forces, as well as for strengthening the military readiness of the Republic's armed forces."

North Korean Leader Kim Jong-un Leads On-site Guidance at the National Space Development Agency

The day before, North Korea notified Japan, the regional navigation area adjustment authority of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), of its plan to launch a satellite between 0:00 on the 31st and 0:00 on the 11th of next month. Although the launch plan has been mentioned since December last year, this is the first time the military leadership has directly revealed a specific timeframe.

Vice Chairman Ri emphasized the justification for the reconnaissance satellite launch by citing the ROK-US combined and joint firepower annihilation exercises, the deployment plan of the US strategic nuclear submarine (SSBN) to the Korean Peninsula under the 'Washington Declaration,' and the multinational maritime blockade exercise Eastern Endeavor 23 hosted by South Korea on the 31st. He particularly claimed, "The operational range and surveillance authority of the US military's aerial reconnaissance assets deployed and operating in the Korean Peninsula region cover not only the northwest area of the Republic, including the capital Pyongyang, but also the central areas and metropolitan regions of neighboring countries," adding, "This constitutes a serious threat to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and neighboring countries."

Rocket Propulsion System Identical to ICBM... A Technological Advancement

The long-range rocket propulsion system that North Korea will use to launch the reconnaissance satellite is technically almost identical to that of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The difference is that an ICBM carries a warhead instead of a satellite. Having secured both procedural and justificatory grounds through prior notification to international organizations and criticism of the ROK-US joint exercises, the 'countdown' could begin as early as midnight on the 31st. The launch site is expected to be the Sohae Satellite Launching Station in Dongchang-ri, Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province, North Korea's westernmost area. This site previously saw the launches of Unha-3 in 2012 and Kwangmyongsong-4 in 2016.

Based on navigation warnings provided by the Japan Coast Guard, North Korea's satellite launch vehicle performance is estimated to have improved compared to the past. Comparing the notified details with previous ones, the first stage rocket's drop point is closer to the West Sea near Dongchang-ri, Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province, the expected launch site. This suggests that the first stage rocket burns faster, indicating stronger thrust. The second stage rocket is analyzed to fall into the sea farther away than before, which is attributed to a longer burn time and increased flight speed of the second stage.

Image of a reconnaissance satellite captured on the screen of the North Korean National Space Development Agency's control room

Reconnaissance Satellite Performance

If the launch succeeds, the most notable point will be the performance as a 'reconnaissance satellite.' To be used as a reconnaissance and intelligence satellite, it should have a 'sub-meter' resolution of less than 1 meter, but North Korea's reconnaissance satellite is estimated to have a crude resolution of around 3 meters. The resolution of the reconnaissance satellite that our military plans to launch by the end of this year is 0.3 meters. Shin Jong-woo, Secretary General of the Korea Defense and Security Forum, pointed out, "The important factor is the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), which North Korea's satellite lacks." SAR is necessary to avoid weather condition interference, but no external SAR antenna was detected in the reconnaissance satellite's aerial view photos released by North Korea.

Especially, since multiple satellites are needed to function effectively as reconnaissance satellites, 'additional launches' are also anticipated. There is a possibility of consecutive launches through newly constructed facilities at the Dongchang-ri launch site. Secretary General Shin noted, "With only one reconnaissance satellite, there will inevitably be gaps in mission performance, so Ri Pyong-chol's statement about 'monitoring US military actions' is considerably exaggerated at this point." He further analyzed, "If successful, it could lead to additional launches, but failure would represent a significant setback to North Korea's reconnaissance satellite acquisition plans."

Ri Pyong-chol Announces "Various Reconnaissance Means"... Additional Launches Anticipated

Professor Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies predicted that the 'various new reconnaissance means to be tested' mentioned by Ri Pyong-chol are likely reconnaissance drones and others, evaluating that "this satellite launch is not the end but the beginning." Regarding the overall position, he said, "It is characterized by hostility toward the ROK-US while specifically criticizing the deployment of US aerial reconnaissance assets on the Korean Peninsula," interpreting it as "revealing a disadvantage in reconnaissance activities while legitimizing the satellite launch and ultimately arguing that the military activities of the ROK-US forced them to develop satellites."

Meanwhile, our military is maintaining an interception posture, considering the possibility that North Korea's rocket debris may fall into territorial waters or territory. Japan also regards North Korea's satellite as essentially a ballistic missile, deploying Patriot surface-to-air guided missiles on three islands in Okinawa Prefecture and issuing a 'destruction order.'

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.