[Yoon's Diplomatic Battle]③ Approval Ratings Plummet After Every Tour... Will the Jinx Finally Be Broken This Time?

Yoon Approval Rating Back in 20% Range After 5 Months
Sharp Decline Since Last Month's Korea-Japan Summit
Controversy Over 'Biden' Remarks During September 2023 Visit

Every time President Yoon Suk-yeol embarks on multilateral and bilateral summits and overseas visits to secure sales diplomacy and leadership, a 'visit jinx' seems to be solidifying, where various controversies cause his approval ratings to drop.

Korea Gallup announced on the 21st that in a public opinion survey conducted nationwide from April 18 to 20 (3rd week of April) targeting 1,003 people aged 18 and over (with a sampling error of ±3.1% at a 95% confidence level, and a response rate of 8.6%; for detailed information, refer to the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website), President Yoon's approval rating was recorded at 31%, up 4 percentage points from the previous week. In last week's survey, the positive evaluation of President Yoon's state affairs management had dropped to the 20% range for the first time since the 3rd week of November (15?17), recording 27%, while the negative evaluation stood at 65%.

Earlier, around March 1st, when the South Korean government proposed a third-party compensation solution to the forced labor issue, President Yoon's approval rating slightly decreased but then sharply declined after the Korea-Japan summit with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio on March 16?17 and the Cabinet meeting on the 21st. At that time, President Yoon unusually broadcast his Cabinet meeting opening remarks live for 23 minutes, stating, "We must face and remember the past. However, we must not be shackled by the past," attempting a direct breakthrough, but analyses suggested that this instead provoked public sentiment and increased backlash.

In particular, beyond the forced labor issue, lukewarm follow-up responses to Japan's export restrictions lift, the Dokdo issue, the comfort women issue, the discharge of Fukushima contaminated water, and the resumption of seafood imports were repeatedly raised by Japanese media, seemingly used for domestic political purposes. This atmosphere led to criticism of the South Korean government’s swift decision to hold the summit. In fact, while the approval rating had risen to 37% in the 4th week of February by addressing domestic issues such as illegal labor union activities and school violence eradication measures, it recorded 36% (1st week of March) → 34% (2nd week of March) → 33% (3rd week of March) → 34% (4th week of March) → 30% (5th week of March).

Ahead of the state visit to the United States, reports of alleged wiretapping of the South Korean presidential office by U.S. intelligence agencies surfaced repeatedly in foreign media, dragging down President Yoon's approval ratings. Following reports by U.S. media such as The New York Times (NYT) on the 9th, the presidential office stated that "there is no significant impact on the Korea-U.S. alliance," "no wiretapping occurred," and that the documents were "fabricated," but analyses suggest that public trust declined due to the differing tones and atmosphere within the U.S. government.

However, expectations for the Korea-U.S. summit starting on the 24th and the arrest of a suspect involved in the leak of confidential documents appear to have contributed to a recovery in approval ratings. Gallup analyzed the rise in approval ratings, stating, "Diplomatic issues have ranked highest for two consecutive months as reasons for both positive and negative job evaluations, and mentions related to Japan are gradually decreasing. The controversy over wiretapping by a U.S. ally that arose last week has somewhat subsided due to the arrest of the suspect involved in the confidential document leak, and both Korea and the U.S. have announced the state visit schedule for next week."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

In the past, approval ratings generally rose around foreign visits and trips, benefiting from the so-called 'visit effect,' but President Yoon has repeatedly experienced declines in approval ratings due to various controversies since the early days of his administration. During his first overseas visit after taking office, a 3-night, 5-day trip to Spain in June last year to attend the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) summit, controversy arose when it was revealed that the spouse of Lee Won-mo, a civilian personnel secretary at the presidential office, accompanied the schedule locally and boarded Air Force One on the return flight. President Yoon's approval rating dropped by 6 percentage points after the NATO visit.

During the September last year visit to the United Kingdom, the United States, and Canada, controversies included condolences for the late Queen Elizabeth, a profanity scandal, and remarks controversy over "Biden or Nallimyeon." After this visit, in the 5th week of September, President Yoon's approval rating fell by 5 percentage points to 24%. The remarks controversy extended to the third overseas trip to Southeast Asia in November last year, involving the exclusion of MBC reporters from boarding the presidential aircraft.

During the January visit this year to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Switzerland, the state visit to the UAE resulted in attracting investments worth $30 billion (approximately 40 trillion KRW) and signing 48 memorandums of understanding (MOUs), but approval ratings rose by only 1 percentage point. Among respondents who gave a positive evaluation of President Yoon at that time, 17% cited "diplomacy" as the reason, while 15% of those with negative evaluations did the same. Considering that the second most common reason for negative evaluations was "careless remarks (10%)," it is interpreted that President Yoon's statement that "the UAE's enemy and most threatening country is Iran" had an impact.

Some argue that for President Yoon's foreign visits and trips to translate visible achievements into public support, the presidential office's messaging is crucial. Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University said, "Various achievements have been made during past visits, and results are expected from the upcoming state visit to the U.S. However, to translate this into approval ratings, President Yoon needs to avoid controversies related to his remarks, and the presidential office must also explain the visit messages in a way that the public can accept."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.