[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] No Movement in North Korea's Satellite Launch... Doubts About Performance

Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea, has instructed to launch the first military reconnaissance satellite within the planned timeframe, but there are prospects that the launch timing may be delayed. North Korea has not yet notified the International Maritime Organization (IMO) about the satellite launch, and the West Sea Satellite Launch Site in Dongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province, where satellites have been launched before, is currently under construction. Experts have speculated that there may be insufficient preparation for the launch and that the technical level might be low.

A government official said in a phone interview with Asia Economy on the 20th, "As of yesterday, IMO has not received any notification from North Korea regarding the satellite launch."

It is expected that North Korea will follow the procedure of notifying international organizations to justify the legitimacy of the launch as a normal satellite launch before this military reconnaissance satellite launch.

In the past, North Korea did not provide prior notification to international organizations necessary for the safe navigation of aircraft and ships during the launch of 'Kwangmyongsong-1,' which drew international criticism. However, when launching 'Kwangmyongsong-3 Unit 2' in December 2012 and 'Kwangmyongsong-4' in February 2016, North Korea notified international organizations of the possible launch period ten days and five days in advance, respectively. Prior notification to allow civilian ships and aircraft to navigate safely and avoid danger is an international norm.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Launch Expected Next Week... No Notification to International Organizations Yet and Launch Site Under Construction

The West Sea Satellite Launch Site in Dongchang-ri, where North Korea is expected to launch the satellite, is currently under construction. Located in Dongchang-ri, Cholsan County, Pyonganbuk-do, the westernmost part of North Korea, this site, known as the 'Dongchang-ri Launch Site,' was completed around 2009. The 2016 February 'Kwangmyongsong-4' and 2012 December 'Eunha-3' satellites, both claimed to be artificial satellites, were launched from here. After Kim Jong-un inspected the West Sea Satellite Launch Site in March last year, he ordered renovation and modernization of the launch site.

Voice of America (VOA) analyzed satellite images on the same day and reported, "Since last year, North Korea has moved the mobile rocket assembly building to the center of the launch site and started extensive improvement work by dismantling the roof and outer walls," adding, "They have built new structures on the fuel oxidizer storage site and started construction of new large buildings." It also noted, "Most of these facilities are still incomplete," and "Materials are still placed around the launch site, and the rocket assembly building remains dismantled."

Some speculate that it may take time to prepare a launch vehicle suitable for the weight of the artificial satellite. A new artificial satellite launch vehicle based on the liquid-fueled Baekdusan engine is needed, so the launch might only be possible around mid or late this year at the earliest.

High Possibility of Launching Low Earth Orbit Satellites but Doubts on Satellite Optical Technology

If North Korea launches satellites, it is highly likely that multiple low Earth orbit satellites will be launched. Satellite orbits are classified into low Earth orbit, medium Earth orbit (MEO, 1,500 to 20,000 km), and geostationary orbit (GEO, about 35,000 km above the equator).

North Korea mentioned a 'sun-synchronous polar orbit' when announcing the satellite launch. This is a low Earth orbit. Low Earth orbit satellites orbit the Earth once every 90 to 100 minutes and pass over the Korean Peninsula at the same time throughout the year. However, since they pass over specific areas at the same time, they are affected by daily changes in the Earth and atmosphere, which can reduce resolution. To compensate for this drawback, multiple reconnaissance satellites are deployed and operated in low Earth orbit. This is why Chairman Kim said that military reconnaissance satellites would be deployed diversely in sun-synchronous polar orbits.

The issue lies in the satellite's performance. Even if satellite transmission data is received on the ground with help from China and Russia, it is meaningless if the performance is poor. The resolution of the photos released by North Korea last December, claiming to have tested the performance of a 'satellite prototype' for reconnaissance satellite development, was low quality at about 20 meters, which has led to such views. When a domestic expert evaluated this as 'poor quality,' Kim Yo-jong, Deputy Director of the Workers' Party, issued a statement directly rebutting, saying, "Who would install an expensive high-resolution camera for a one-time test?"

Most domestic experts expressed doubts that North Korea's satellite optical technology might not reach the level required for reconnaissance satellites to function properly, which is at least a resolution of 0.5 meters. It is known that the resolution of U.S. military reconnaissance satellites operating at an altitude of around 1,000 km is about 0.28 meters.

Will Marshall, CEO of the U.S. commercial satellite imagery company Planet Labs, said in an interview with Radio Free Asia (RFA) on the same day, "Satellite technology is complex," and viewed that it would be difficult for North Korea to possess advanced technology. Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, evaluated to RFA, "Looking at the images North Korea released, the image quality was decent for a first attempt but definitely not comparable to the capabilities held by commercial companies."

Bruce Bennett, a senior military researcher at the RAND Corporation, said, "North Korea recently launched a long-range missile and released photos of the Earth taken from it, but the resolution was very poor," adding, "Photos taken by reconnaissance satellites launched by North Korea are likely to be of similar quality."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.